HAS KICKED INTO HIGH GEAR AS JOE BIDEN AND DONALD TRUMP PREPARE TO MEET FOR THEIR FIRST 2024 DEBATE ON THURSDAY.

THE TWO MEN HAVE BEEN LOCKED IN A TIGHT RACE FOR MONTHS, AND NO OTHER CANDIDATES REACHED THE REQUIRED POLLING THRESHOLD TO BE ON THE STAGE.

LISA DESJARDINS TAKES A CLOSER LOOK AT HOW POLLS WORK WITH OUR PARTNERS AT THE MARIST POLL.

LISA: INSIDE THE OFFICES OF THE MARIST INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC OPINION.

>> MY NAME IS JACOB, I'M A STUDENT CALLING FROM MARIST COLLEGE.

LISA: THERE'S A BUZZ IN THE ROOM.

OVER SEVERAL HOURS AND DAYS, NEARLY TWO DOZEN STUDENT WORKERS MAKE HUNDREDS OF PHONE CALLS AND SEND THOUSANDS OF TEXT MESSAGES.

OVERSEEING IT ALL, LEE MIRINGOFF, THE DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE, AND BARBARA CARVALHO, THE DIRECTOR OF THE MARIST POLL.

>> THEY ARE THE ONES THAT ARE TALKING ONE ON ONE, WITH WITH AMERICANS.

LISA: TALKING ABOUT ISSUES, OR.

>> HELLO?

LISA: IN MANY, MANY, MANY, CASES.

>> IS THERE A BETTER TIME I COULD CALL YOU BACK?

LISA: NOT TALKING AT ALL.

>> HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR DAY.

LISA: HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE THE RATIO OF CALLS YOU GET ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO DIALS YOU HAVE TO MAKE TO GET THAT ONE?

>> ON A NORMAL NIGHT, IT'S ABOUT 100 TO 1.

LISA: 100 CALLS TO GET ONE SURVEY?

>> YEP.

BUT ON THIS NIGHT, A VOLUNTEER.

LISA: AS I HOPPED ON THE PHONES TO EXPERIENCE THE REJECTION FIRST HAND.

THAT'S THE END I THINK.

HE HUNG UP.

ME AND MY FELLOW CALLERS ALL WERE TRAINED FOR THIS.

BOTH ONLINE.

>> THE SURVEY SHOULD TAKE ABOUT 12 MINUTES.

LISA: AND IN PERSON.

TRAINING REQUIRED BEFORE ANY CALLS ARE MADE.

EVERY STEP OF THE MARIST POLL IS CAREFULLY CONSIDERED.

>> I THINK IT IS GOING TO BE HOT.

LISA: STARTING ABOUT TWO WEEKS BEFORE WITH OUR TEAM AT "NEWS HOUR" WHERE WE DISCUSS, SOMETIMES DISAGREE POLITELY, AND DECIDE WHAT ISSUES WE'D LIKE TO RAISE.

>> HOW SATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE TWO CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT?

LISA: THEN POLLSTERS AT MARIST WITH DECADES OF EXPERIENCE FINESSE THE LANGUAGE AND ORDER OF THE QUESTIONS.

>> MAKE SURE THAT THE QUESTION IS UNDERSTANDABLE.

NO MATTER WHO THAT PERSON IS THAT MAY BE ANSWERING IT.

LISA: ONCE THAT WORDING IS SET, ALL THE CALLERS INCLUDING ME ASK THE EXACT SAME QUESTIONS, THE EXACT SAME WAY.

>> THE REASON WHY EVERYONE IS SAYING THE SAME THING IS TO NOT INTRODUCE ANY BIAS INTO THE SURVEY.

LISA: AND EVERY SINGLE WORD, THE SAME THING EVERY SINGLE TIME.

>> EVERY SINGLE TIME.

NO INFLECTION ON ANY WORD.

LISA: BREAKING UP THE REPETITION ON THE PHONES, A PRIZE WHEEL SPINS IN THE BACK OF THE ROOM, SIGNALING A STREAK OF COMPLETED CALLS.

YOU MAY BE GETTING THE POINT HERE.

IN-PERSON CALLS ARE NOT EASY AND ARE LABOR INTENSIVE.

TO GET A NATIONALLY-REPRESENTATIVE AND RANDOM SURVEY OF RESPONDENTS, THE POLL RELIES ON COMPANIES THAT AGGREGATE ALL THE TELEPHONE NUMBERS IN THE COUNTRY.

AS TECHNOLOGY HAS EVOLVED, SO HAS THE WAY MARIST DOES THIS.

OVER TIME, LANDLINE CALLS GREW TO INCLUDE CELL PHONES.

AND NOW THERE ARE TEXT MESSAGES AND ONLINE RESPONSES, TOO.

>> WE JUST COULDN'T DO TELEPHONE SURVEYS BECAUSE PEOPLE AREN'T NECESSARILY GOING TO BE RESPONDING THAT WAY, BECAUSE WE WANT TO USE THE METHOD THAT'S GOING TO GIVE EVERYBODY A KNOWN OR EQUAL CHANCE OF GETTING INTO THE SURVEY.

>> THIS IS THE DATA.

LISA: AS THE SURVEYS ARE UNDERWAY, THE RESULTS ARE BEING CAREFULLY MONITORED BY STEPHANIE CALVANO, THE DIRECTOR OF DATA SCIENCE.

>> I AM RUNNING PRELIM DATA.

I'M LOOKING AT ALL THE FREQUENCIES.

LISA: TO THE UNTRAINED EYE, INCLUDING MINE, IT MIGHT LOOK LIKE ENDLESS COLUMNS AND ROWS OF NUMBERS, BUT.

>> EACH OF THESE ARE CODES THAT ARE THE RESPONSES TO QUESTIONS.

LISA: WHAT DO YOU SEE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THIS DATA?

DO YOU INSTANTLY TRANSLATE IT?

>> I CAN, YES.

LISA: THE RAW DATA ALSO NEED CONTEXT, WHAT POLLSTERS CALL WEIGHTING, MATHEMATICAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MAKE SURE THE FINAL NUMBERS ACTUALLY REFLECT THE LARGER POPULATION.

FOR INSTANCE, IF ONE SURVEY HAPPENS TO GET 60% OF ITS RESPONSES FROM WOMEN, WHEN WE KNOW THE U.S. POPULATION IS ACTUALLY JUST OVER 50% WOMEN, MARIST WOULD INCREASE THE WEIGHT OF ANSWERS FROM THE MEN WHO RESPONDED.

>> THE GOAL OF HAVING A REPRESENTATIVE CROSS-SECTION OF AMERICA IN THIS CASE IS WHERE YOU WANT TO BE.

IF YOU WANT TO THINK OF IT AS A SOUP RECIPE.

WELL, WHAT ARE THE INGREDIENTS AND HOW MUCH OF EACH INGREDIENT DO WE WANT IN IT?

WELL, THAT WE CAN FIND OUT BY LITERALLY CHECKING WITH THE CENSUS NUMBERS.

LISA: AS THE METHODS AND THE SCIENCE HAVE GROWN MORE COMPLICATED, POLLING ITSELF HAS GROWN MORE PROMINENT.

BECOMING A STAPLE OF CABLE NEWS CAMPAIGN COVERAGE OF WHO'S UP AND WHO'S DOWN.

SHAPING THE CANDIDATES' MESSAGES.

>> TRUMP IS A CONVICTED CRIMINAL.

LISA: AND EVEN HELPING DECIDE WHO QUALIFIES TO BE ON THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE STAGE THIS WEEK.

THAT MATCHUP WILL FEATURE JUST TWO CANDIDATES, JOE BIDEN AND DONALD TRUMP, WHO HAVE CONSISTENTLY PULLED AT LEAST 15% SUPPORT IN NATIONAL POLLS.

POLLS, INCLUDING YOURS, ARE USED AS QUALIFICATIONS FOR DEBATES.

WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT?

>> THAT'S BAD.

WE THINK IT'S A HORRIBLE USE OF PUBLIC POLLS.

LISA: WHY?

>> POLLS HAVE A SCIENTIFIC BASIS TO THEM, BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN THERE'S NOT A RANGE IN THE NUMBERS.

LISA: A LITTLE POLLING GLOSSARY HERE.

HE MEANS THE MARGIN OF ERROR, THE RANGE ABOVE AND BELOW THE POLL RESULT THAT REPRESENTS WHERE, MATHEMATICALLY, THE TRUE FEELINGS OF THE ENTIRE COUNTRY, OR LARGER GROUP, COULD BE.

MARGINS OF ERROR AS WELL AS SOME HIGH-PROFILE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN POLLS AND ELECTION RESULTS HAVE HELPED SOME CANDIDATES FUEL PUBLIC DOUBTS IN POLLING AT LARGE.

>> POLLS ARE DEFINITELY BETTER FOR SOME THINGS THAN OTHERS.

LISA: COURTNEY KENNEDY IS THE VICE PRESIDENT OF METHODS AND INNOVATION AT THE PEW RESEARCH CENTER.

SHE SAYS IT ALL COMES DOWN TO HOW YOU USE POLLS.

>> CAN WE USE POLLING TO PREDICT THE WINNER IN A VERY COMPETITIVE ELECTION?

THE ANSWER IS NO.

I LOVE POLLING, BUT IT'S JUST NOT A PRECISE ENOUGH TOOL TO DO THAT.

POLLING IS ABSOLUTELY UP TO THAT TASK OF GIVING US A HIGH LEVEL READ OF HOW THE PUBLIC FEELS ABOUT A MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY.

LISA: AND NOT ALL POLLS ARE CREATED EQUAL.

WHICH IS CONFUSING.

SO, HOW SHOULD PEOPLE FIGURE OUT IF A POLL IS, IN A WORD, GOOD?

>> TRACK RECORD AND TRANSPARENCY.

IS THIS A POLLING ORGANIZATION THAT YOU'VE HEARD OF THAT HAS A TRACK RECORD OF DOING HIGH QUALITY NON-PARTISAN POLLS OR NOT?

POLLS THAT ARE WILLING TO DISCLOSE MORE DETAIL ABOUT HOW THEY DO THEIR WORK, THEY TEND TO BE MORE ACCURATE.

LISA: WHERE DOES MARIST FIT IN ALL THAT?

>> THEIR TRACK RECORD IS ONE OF, TRYING REALLY HARD TO BE NONPARTISAN AND DOING RIGOROUS POLLING.

LISA: DESPITE THE SCIENCE, AND THE WORK TO BE MORE TRANSPARENT, POLLS THEMSELVES HAVE AN APPROVAL PROBLEM.

TRUST US, WE ASKED.

DURING THIS PBS NEWS/NPR MARIST POLL, 6 IN 10 AMERICANS TOLD US THEY HAVE LITTLE TO NO TRUST IN PUBLIC OPINION POLLS.

WHY DO YOU THINK PEOPLE SHOULD TRUST POLLS?

>> I DON'T KNOW THAT IT'S ABOUT TRUST AND IT'S ABOUT FAITH.

IT SHOULD REALLY BE ABOUT SCIENCE.

LISA: REGARDLESS OF WHAT THEY SAID OR WHETHER THE TRUST IN POLLING IS IRREVOCABLY GONE, ALL THOSE RESPONDENTS STILL ANSWERED THE CALL.

FOR THE "PBS NEWS HOUR," I'M LISA DESJARDINS ON THE PHONES AT MARIST COLLEGE IN POUGHKEEPSIE, NEW YORK.

AMNA: AND BE SURE TO TUNE IN TO PBS ON THURSDAY AT 9:00 P.M. EASTERN FOR OUR SIMULCAST OF THE CNN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE WITH ANALYSIS TO FOLLOW.

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