GEOFF BENNETT: Good evening.

I'm Geoff Bennett.

AMNA NAWAZ: And I'm Amna Nawaz.

On the "News Hour" tonight: WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange agrees to plead guilty to a national security crime in exchange for his release.

GEOFF BENNETT: The U.S. surgeon general declares gun violence a public health crisis.

AMNA NAWAZ: And a behind-the-scenes look at how the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll is conducted.

LISA DESJARDINS: Why do you think people should trust polls?

BARBARA CARVALHO, Director, Marist Poll: I don't know that it's about trust and it's about faith.

It should really be about science.

(BREAK) AMNA NAWAZ: Welcome to the "News Hour."

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, a brave whistle-blower to his allies, a national security threat to his critics, is on the verge of being a free man.

GEOFF BENNETT: Assange is pleading guilty in a court in the Northern Mariana Islands -- that's a U.S. commonwealth - - and will be sentenced to time served, allowing him to return to his native Australia.

Nick Schifrin is here tracking this story -- Nick.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Geoff, Assange is notorious for some of the largest leaks of classified information in U.S. history, as well as posting e-mails that played an outsized role in the 2016 election.

And, tonight, the WikiLeaks founder is ending a decade-long legal saga with the U.S. and heading home.

Tonight, Julian Assange's brief and final moments on U.S. soil to appear in perhaps the U.S.' most remote courthouse on the Northern Mariana Islands.

His road to freedom began this morning on the way to a British airport, signing his plea deal documents and landing in Bangkok, his first time outside of the United Kingdom in 14 years.

Court documents reveal that Assange will plead guilty a single felony, to receive and obtain documents, writings, and notes connected with the national defense, including such materials classified up to the secret level, and willfully communicate documents relating to the national defense.

He will spend no time in U.S. jail.

And more than 62 months spent in a British prison will count for time served, allowing him to return to his native Australia, where Prime Minister Anthony Albanese today celebrated his release.

ANTHONY ALBANESE, Australian Prime Minister: Regardless of the views that people have about Mr. Assange's activities, the case has dragged on for too long.

There is nothing to be gained by his continued incarceration and we want him brought home to Australia.

JULIAN ASSANGE, Founder, WikiLeaks: The course of the war needs to change.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Nearly 15 years ago, Assange presented himself as the ultimate truth-teller, revealing what he called the reality of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan... MAN: Come on, fire.

NICK SCHIFRIN: ... including a 2007 U.S. military attack in Baghdad that killed two Reuters journalists.

WikiLeaks dropped 400,000 classified documents that the Pentagon said risked U.S. informants' lives.

They were leaked by U.S. Army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning, later convicted under the Espionage Act.

MAN: Political prisoner!

NICK SCHIFRIN: In 2010, he was arrested by British authorities after two Swedish women accused him of sexual assault, charges later dropped.

And after failing to make bail, he fled into Ecuador's embassy in London, where he remained for seven years.

JULIAN ASSANGE: As WikiLeaks stands under threat, so does the freedom of expression.

MIKA BRZEZINSKI, Co-Host, "Morning Joe": WikiLeaks has released appeared to be transcripts.

NICK SCHIFRIN: In 2016, WikiLeaks posted documents that Russian intelligence had hacked from the Clinton campaign.

Clinton said it helped lead to her defeat.

HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON, Former U.S. Secretary of State: He has to answer for what he has done, at least it's been charged.

NICK SCHIFRIN: By 2019, a U.S. grand jury indicted Assange on 18 counts, including espionage, the embassy evicted him, and British authorities arrested for bail violation.

A free speech crusader to his allies, a threat to national security to his critics, Assange will now be able to write a new chapter, in Australia, with his wife, Stella.

STELLA ASSANGE, Wife of Julian Assange: I will really believe it when I have him in front of me and I can take him and hug him.

And then it will be real, you know?

NICK SCHIFRIN: For more on Assange's plea deal, we get two views.

Jamil Jaffer is the founder of the National Security Institute at George Mason University.

He's a former House Intelligence Committee and Justice Department official.

And Trevor Timm, founder and executive director of the Freedom of the Press Foundation, he specializes in free speech and government transparency.

Thank you very much, both of you.

Welcome to the "News Hour."

Jamil Jaffer, let me start with you.

Should Julian Assange have been prosecuted to the full extent of the law?

JAMIL JAFFER, Former Senior Counsel, House Intelligence Committee: Absolutely.

I mean, look, Julian Assange has leaked documents that have put thousands of American soldiers and intelligence operatives' lives at risk.

He's probably gotten a number of our Afghan allies and friends killed as a result of his leaks, along with Chelsea Manning.

And he absolutely deserved to be prosecuted to the full extent of the law and deserved to serve a life sentence, frankly, in jail.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Trevor Timm, did he deserve to serve a life sentence?

TREVOR TIMM, Founder and Executive Director, Freedom of the Press Foundation: Absolutely not.

And, in fact, he shouldn't have been prosecuted in the first place.

This case has been a ticking time bomb for press freedom in the United States for several years now.

What Julian Assange is accused of and what he pled guilty to is receiving and obtaining documents and publishing those documents that the government considers secret.

That is actions that journalists engage in at The New York Times and The Washington Post almost every single day.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Jamil Jaffer, was Julian Assange a journalist?

Was he doing what The New York Times and The Washington Post does every day?

JAMIL JAFFER: Not even a little bit.

He doesn't uphold any of the traditional aspects of the press.

He doesn't vet his sources carefully.

He doesn't take action to protect innocents involved.

In fact, to the contrary, he just dumped those documents out there, revealing the names of tons of confidential informants, many of whom have probably been attacked by the Taliban and others and may have been killed.

So this -- the idea that Julian Assange is some hero for the little guy or some hero for press freedom, he's not a journalist.

He's never been a journalist.

Let's be real.

Honest journalists like you, Nick, don't even consider him a journalist.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Well, regardless of my opinion, Trevor Timm, let me ask you about that.

Julian Assange posted documents that did reveal the names of Afghans and Iraqis who were helping the United States.

Does that make him not a journalist?

TREVOR TIMM: You know, it doesn't matter if I think Julian Assange is a journalist or Jamil doesn't think or whatever you think.

What matters is the acts that he is charged under.

Thankfully, in this country, the government doesn't get to decide who is and who isn't a journalist.

The First Amendment provides that right to everybody.

And what the acts that they are saying that he committed are to receive and obtain documents and publish those documents.

When you read the plea deal, it says nothing about sources and methods.

It says nothing about redactions.

You could take the most ethical, careful journalist in the world who checks their sources a million times, and under the letter of what this plea deal says, the U.S. government thinks that they can also be prosecuted for the same thing.

NICK SCHIFRIN: So, Jamil Jaffer, let me highlight what the plea deal is.

A federal grandeur in 2019 indicted Assange on 17 counts of espionage and one on computer fraud.

Today's plea deal has him guilty of one count of espionage.

So, why, after a 12-year-long saga, would this plea deal focus on espionage and only one count?

JAMIL JAFFER: Well, that's obviously the bigger case for the United States government, right?

The conspiracy to commit computer fraud, people get charged with that and prosecuted all the time.

The espionage count is the critical one.

It's the one that Julian Assange has now pled guilty to.

And what does that mean?

It's not just receiving and publishing information.

It's conspiring to get a person with access that information to reveal it to him.

That is illegal.

It should be illegal.

And it's not something any responsible journalist does.

They don't go and provoke somebody to give them classified information.

They simply receive it, publish it.

That's not at all what Julian Assange did.

He went out, worked with Chelsea Manning, worked with others to obtain classified information, to get it, knowing they had access to it, and then publish it cavalierly without regard for the lives of the people involved.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Trevor Timm, what is the impact of exactly what you were just pointing out,that this is not about computer fraud, at least the agreement that Assange has made today; it is about espionage?

TREVOR TIMM: Well, I think it's a little naive to say that journalists just wait for documents to magically land in their lap, and that's the only time in which they will publish them.

If you ask any journalist, any national security journalist, of course, they ask their sources for information and documents and follow-up questions, and prod them for any more data that they can get to find out what the government is doing behind closed doors.

A journalist at The New York Times, Washington Post, or The Wall Street Journal is committing this -- quote, unquote - - "conspiracy" on a weekly or daily basis, and that's what makes these charges so concerning for press freedom advocates.

It's not just my organization.

It's literally every press freedom organization in the country, it's every human rights organization, it's every civil liberties organization.

As I said before, it's a ticking time bomb for journalists in this country, and we have an election coming up where we have one presidential candidate which is talking openly on the campaign trail about putting more journalists in jail.

And so, to me, that is a very worrying prospect for the near future.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Jamil Jaffer, let me ask about some of the Republican responses to this plea deal, and this seems to show that this is not a clear ideological divide that Assange has created.

One is former President (sic) Mike Pence, who said today -- quote -- "The Biden administration's plea deal with Assange is a miscarriage of justice and dishonors the service and sacrifice of the men and women of our armed forces and their families."

At the same time, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican of Georgia -- quote -- "Julian Assange is set to be released after being held for years for the crime of committing journalism.

Praise God for setting Julian free."

What does it say that you get those two diametrically opposed responses?

JAMIL JAFFER: Well, I can tell you, Mike Pence is obviously right here.

Julian Assange is not a journalist.

He's never been a journalist.

He's never purported to be one for real.

And here's the thing about it at the end of the day, right?

No real journalist has ever been prosecuted for this, and no real journalist would be, because they don't act the way Julian Assange did, not in the Ecuadorian Embassy, where he got kicked out of, not the sexual assault charges he's been accused of, none of those things, not to mention not putting the lives of innocent people who helped the U.S. and our allies out at risk.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Trevor Timm, your response to that?

TREVOR TIMM: What Jamil is leaving out is that several administrations in the past 50 years have threatened journalists under the Espionage Act, have almost prosecuted them.

The New York Times was this close to being prosecuted for publishing the Pentagon Papers under the Nixon administration.

There was a grand jury and paneled.

Dick Cheney under the Ford administration wanted to charge Seymour Hersh at The New York Times under the Espionage Act.

There have been several close calls.

The only reason that it hasn't gone through is because the government officials have been worried that, ultimately, the law will be overturned as unconstitutional.

But they found with Julian Assange, as an unpopular and polarizing figure, that people -- that journalists won't rise up and defend because they may not like him.

And that's incredibly dangerous.

Bad facts make bad law.

And that's why everybody was so worried about this case, was that, if there was a precedent set with Julian Assange, because of the charges that are in the documents that the government says, it means that they can then turn around and use that on The New York Times and Washington Post, whether or not there are cosmetic differences between the two.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Jamil Jaffer, Trevor Timm, thank you very much to you both.

TREVOR TIMM: Thanks a lot.

JAMIL JAFFER: Thanks, Nick.

AMNA NAWAZ: In the day's other headlines: Israel's Supreme Court ruled that the military must draft ultra-Orthodox Jewish men for mandatory service.

The unanimous decision ends decades of broad exemptions.

It also deals a political blow to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his governing coalition, which had long objected to this move.

And it comes as Netanyahu's defense minister, Yoav Gallant, is in Washington for meetings with Pentagon officials.

As the war grinds on in Gaza and fighting between Israeli forces and Lebanon-based Hezbollah intensifies, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said diplomacy is key to avoiding a second front.

LLOYD AUSTIN, U.S. Secretary of Defense: Hezbollah's provocations threaten to drag the Israeli and Lebanese people into a war that they do not want.

Such a war would be a catastrophe for Lebanon and it would be devastating for innocent Israeli and Lebanese civilians.

AMNA NAWAZ: In the meantime, U.N. officials told Israel they will suspend aid operations in Gaza unless urgent steps are taken to protect humanitarian workers on the ground.

Kenya's president has vowed to maintain calm - - quote -- "at whatever cost" after protesters stormed the nation's Parliament today.

Frustrations boiled over as legislators passed a finance bill that imposes new taxes.

Television cameras that followed the protesters inside showed the seat of government ransacked and vandalized.

Outside, police fired live ammunition and hurled tear gas to disperse the crowds.

Health officials say at least five people were killed.

Both the U.S. State Department and United Nations have condemned the violence.

The International Criminal Court in the Netherlands issued arrest warrants today for two Russian officials.

Former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and military Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov are charged with war crimes for targeting Ukrainian power plants.

The pair are unlikely to be detained, as Russia doesn't recognize the court's jurisdiction.

Russia's Security Council blasted the decision, calling it -- quote -- "part of the West's hybrid warfare against our country."

A U.S. State Department spokesperson says the U.S. supports any and all prosecutions of Russia's actions in Ukraine.

MATTHEW MILLER, State Department Spokesman: So we have made clear that there have been atrocities committed by Russian forces in their illegal invasion of Ukraine and that there ought to be accountability for those atrocities.

We support a range of international investigations into Russia's atrocities in Ukraine, including the one conducted by the ICC.

AMNA NAWAZ: Meanwhile, European Union officials started membership talks with Ukraine today, as well as with Moldova.

It's a major milestone for both nations, though the talks could take years to wrap up.

Ukraine hopes to be a full E.U.

member by 2030.

A New York judge has partially lifted the gag order on Donald Trump from his hush money trial.

The decision comes just days before the former president squares off against President Joe Biden in the first presidential debate.

Trump can now comment publicly about the jurors and witnesses in the case.

That includes his former lawyer Michael Cohen and adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

But he's still barred from speaking publicly about court staff, including the judge himself, as well as the prosecution and their families.

Trump's lawyers vowed to challenge today's decision, saying the gag order should be lifted completely.

Norfolk Southern withheld key information during the response to last year's train derailment near East Palestine, Ohio.

That is according to new findings by the National Transportation Safety Board.

Dozens of cars fell off the tracks during the February 2023 crash, some containing toxic gases.

Company officials advised firefighters to release those gases from several overheating cars to avoid an explosion.

That so-called vent-and-burn sent toxic smoke into the sky.

At a hearing today, NTSB members addressed evidence that Norfolk Southern held back data that the cars were actually cooling after the crash and, as it turns out, an explosion was not imminent.

THOMAS CHAPMAN, National Transportation Safety Board: Had there been more thought given to the evidence that was available at the time, had there been more opportunity for contrasting views to be shared and discussed, I feel like we might still be here today talking about a derailment, but I don't think we would be talking about a vent-and-burn.

And I think it's really unfortunate.

AMNA NAWAZ: The investigation also found that a trackside heat sensor failed to detect a burning wheel bearing ahead of the derailment.

That wheel bearing is suspected to have caused the incident.

Oklahoma's Supreme Court ruled today that a state board's approval last year of the nation's first religious charter school was unconstitutional.

The decision comes after a coalition of parents and faith leaders sued to stop its establishment.

In its ruling, the court wrote -- quote -- "Under Oklahoma law, a charter school is a public school.

As such, a charter school must be nonsectarian."

The case comes after recent U.S. Supreme Court rulings that indicate a willingness to allow the use of public funds for religious entities.

There's more rain in the forecast for parts of the Midwest already drenched by floodwaters.

At least two people have died.

In Minnesota, south of Minneapolis, county officials say a dam along the Blue Earth River already damaged will survive the flooding.

Homes have been evacuated downstream, including this one left teetering as the ground beneath it erodes.

Residents could only watch and hope that their dwellings will survive.

JENNY BARNES, Flood Victim: And now the threat of our house, my family house, my -- where I grew up, is threatened by the force of Mother Nature.

AMNA NAWAZ: Governors of Iowa and South Dakota say the flooding has damaged roads and bridges, forced hospitals to evacuate and left entire cities without power or safe drinking water.

Officials have reported hundreds of water rescues, all this as the very same areas remain under heat warnings, many temperatures feeling 100 degrees or higher.

And on Wall Street today, tech stocks led the way amid broader amid broader caution ahead of some inflation data later this week.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell by nearly 300 points.

The Nasdaq rose by 220, and the S&P made more modest gains.

Still to come on the "News Hour": the crisis of starvation and displacement afflicting millions of children in Sudan and Gaza; federal judges in Kansas and Missouri block President Biden's latest student loan repayment plan; and a look at why a growing number of young men are choosing not to go to college.

A new advisory from the U.S. surgeon general declares gun violence in America is an urgent public health crisis.

The report, citing rising deaths of young people and broad mental health impacts, argues for a comprehensive approach to stem gun violence, similar to tobacco-related and motor vehicle-related deaths.

The National Rifle Association today called it -- quote -- "an extension of the Biden administration's war on law-abiding gun owners."

Joining us now is Dr. Emmy Betz.

She's an emergency room physician and director of the Firearm Injury Prevention Initiative at the University of Colorado.

Dr. Betz, Dr. Betz welcome back.

Thanks for joining us.

DR. EMMY BETZ, Director, Firearm Injury Prevention Initiative: Thank you so much for having me.

AMNA NAWAZ: So you work in an E.R.

in Colorado, as we mentioned.

You run this Firearm Injury Prevention Initiative.

From what you have seen in your work, is this public health declaration necessary right now?

DR. EMMY BETZ: I really think it is, because I think it lays out two key tenets.

The first is that this is a health problem.

We are trying to prevent the injuries, the deaths, the psychological harm related to firearms.

So it's not about the device itself.

It's about the negative consequences it can have.

And it's also about acknowledging that public health is a science.

We have a framework on how we can prevent these injuries and deaths, the harm that nobody wants to have happen.

So I think having a report of this magnitude really lays it out and points us in a way forward.

AMNA NAWAZ: So what does labeling it a public health crisis change in the way of what you see every day in your E.R., or in terms of the funding for actual research that goes into firearm injury prevention?

What changes with this?

DR. EMMY BETZ: So, well, when we talk about a public health approach, what it really is, is a four-step cycle that first starts with looking at data to understand who's being injured or killed and why.

Is it from suicide?

Is it from mass shootings?

Is it from youth violence in the community?

And then it's about identifying the strategies that will work to prevent those injuries and deaths and those harms.

And I -- you know,what works in Wyoming for suicide prevention might be really different than what works in Denver for youth at risk of interpersonal violence.

And then the public health approach, we further the things that are effective.

We scale them up in a bigger way.

So, using that approach and what this report can help us really think about in a more systematic way is, what do we know that already works and how can we scale that up, things like community violence intervention programs or respectful counseling by health care providers?

Where are the gaps?

What do we not know?

Where can we invest in funding?

And, again, it's a big and messy problem, so it's going to take multiple different solutions.

But this framework can help us really think about the problem in a systematic way.

AMNA NAWAZ: You mentioned the data.

And there is a lot of data that we do have already.

I want to underscore some of that for our viewers.

The report includes the statistics we reported on a number of times that, since 2020, firearm-related injury has been the leading cause of death for U.S. children.

In 2022, there were more than 48,000 people who were killed in gun violence.

More than half of all gun-related deaths in 2022 were from suicides.

And this is an alarming trend that was noted.

Among people aged 25 to 34, firearm-related suicide rate has climbed 43 percent in the last decade.

I know, Dr. Betz, much of your work in Colorado revolves around gun-related suicides.

What explains that sharp increase in the last decade?

DR. EMMY BETZ: I will say, a positive trend over recent years I think has been increasing willingness to talk about mental health and mental illness and the stresses that we're going through it.

And that's certainly important.

But we also know that firearm and firearm availability can significantly increase the risk of death when someone's going through a period.

It's not that the firearm causes the suicide.

The presence of a gun alone is not going to make someone suddenly think of suicide.

But if someone is going through a rough patch, maybe a bad divorce, maybe substance abuse, maybe mental illness combined with a bunch of other things, if they reach for gun in that moment they're unlikely to survive.

And so I think it's very much like a designated driver to help somebody get home from the bar when they're maybe not at their best or thinking their clearest.

And that's a similar approach that we need in the firearm suicide prevention space.

AMNA NAWAZ: This report also aims to take this conversation sort of out of the political realm and move it into the public health realm.

But it's worth pointing out the report calls for things like universal background checks, a ban on assault weapons, things that have been up for discussion before and haven't politically been able to move forward.

I just wonder, if you think in this climate, those kinds of steps are even possible.

DR. EMMY BETZ: So, I have to think yes, in that I have to think everything is possible.

Look, none of us want these injuries and deaths to be happening.

We all want our families and our communities and our kids to be happy and safe.

And so I really hope that we can have everything on the table for consideration, including recognizing what things have evidence behind them and which don't.

And how do we decide as a society to move forward?

At the University of Colorado, we're really proud to be working in a nonpartisan space.

We recognize legislation can be part of the solution, but it's not the only solution.

And I think, sometimes, we can feel so paralyzed by the political debate that we forget there's lots of other things we can be doing in the meantime to help prevent, again, these injuries and deaths that nobody wants.

AMNA NAWAZ: All right, that is Dr. Emmy Betz, director of Firearm Injury Prevention Initiative at the University of Colorado.

Dr. Betz, thank you.

Great to speak with you.

DR. EMMY BETZ: Thank you.

GEOFF BENNETT: A high risk of famine persists across the Gaza Strip, with 96 percent of Gaza's more than two million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity.

That stark number comes from a report released today by a coalition of U.N. agencies and nonprofit humanitarian organizations known as the IPC.

It rates the severity of food crises.

They found that, in Southern Gaza, the situation has deteriorated since the start of the Israeli offensive in Rafah nearly two months ago.

And, in Sudan, there is growing evidence that the civil war, now in its second year, is creating the world's largest hunger crisis.

The conflict is propelling the country toward famine, with an estimated 24 million children left especially vulnerable.

Catherine Russell joins us now.

She's executive director of UNICEF and joins us from Sudan.

Welcome back to the "News Hour."

CATHERINE RUSSELL, Executive Director, UNICEF: Thanks very much, Geoff.

GEOFF BENNETT: The biggest hunger crisis in the world is unfolding in Sudan right now, and it is manmade.

The warring groups are restricting the delivery of desperately needed aid.

How does that affect the relief effort?

And what does it mean for the children that your organization aims to assist?

CATHERINE RUSSELL: Well, thank you.

I think that the thing to understand about Sudan is that there are several terrible things happening at one time.

One is that there is a terrible conflict here, and children are being directly impacted by that, children being killed, maimed, and other things.

We estimate that four million children are severely malnourished right now.

And that's because we can't get access to food.

We can't get access to the children.

Of that number, over 700,000 are what we call severely acute malnutrition.

And those children are honestly, Geoff, near death.

And it's quite terrifying for us to deal with this.

They need therapeutic feeding, and the challenge for us is that we can't get to them.

And if I could also add that one of the other problems we have is that roughly 17 million children of 19 million children who should be in school are out of school right now and have been out of school for a year.

So all of these terrible things are happening to children at one time, and it makes Sudan one of the worst places in the world to be a child.

GEOFF BENNETT: Sudan now also has the largest number of displaced people in the world, the largest child displacement crisis.

I understand you recently visited a site for internally displaced people and spent some time visiting with young girls.

What did you see?

What did they tell you?

CATHERINE RUSSELL: I met girls who had been displaced, a couple of them several times, and they ended up in this facility where we were working with them.

They had to flee their homes.

One girl told me she didn't have anything with her, no papers, nothing.

But these girls still somehow have optimism about the future.

And I was saying to them, what do you think about when you get older?

What do you want to be?

And two of them -- I met with four of them, and two of them told me they wanted to be lawyers.

One wanted to be a doctor.

One wanted to be an architect.

Even in the worst situations, they can think about something positive.

But we are not doing enough to make it safe and easy for them to live and to grow up and to have a decent life.

GEOFF BENNETT: It might be too late to stop the descent into famine in Sudan, but what's needed right now to mitigate it?

CATHERINE RUSSELL: One is that we need better access, right?

We have got to be able to get to these children, and we have got to be able to provide the resources they need so that they can survive.

And, second -- and this is what the kids told me yesterday -- what they really need is peace, and they want peace desperately.

GEOFF BENNETT: I also want to ask you about the desperate situation in Gaza.

The IPC says that almost half-a-million Gazans are facing what they call catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity.

International aid operations have all but collapsed since Israel's offensive in Rafah, according to their report.

How would you characterize the situation the ground in Gaza right now?

CATHERINE RUSSELL: Catastrophic is a good word for it.

It is again a situation where we do not have sufficient access to the people who need the help, to the children who need the help.

A lot of reasons for that, but, at the end of the day, the world is failing these children.

And we have to do better.

We have to get to them the provisions that make it possible for them to survive and ultimately have a decent life.

That's not what's happening right now.

GEOFF BENNETT: For children in conflict zones, beyond the urgent and immediate need for food and safe and stable shelter, there are so often, as you well know, mental health issues that go unaddressed, trauma that goes unaddressed.

These kids obviously are not in school.

What's the long-term implication of that?

CATHERINE RUSSELL: Conflict and war is the worst thing for children, for two reasons, one, because they're affected directly by it, right?

They can be killed or maimed, but, two, because children really rely on government services.

That means education and health care.

And when they can't get that, it makes their situation very precarious.

And the challenges of the long-term psychosocial issues are real.

I mean, these kids have suffered so much.

I met a woman today who's a counselor here in the -- Port Sudan, and who is working with children who have real trauma issues.

What that's going to look like 20, 30 years from now, lord knows, but it will be bad.

And it is quite destabilizing for them right now and something we're trying really hard to deal with.

But part of it, as I said, is access.

Part of it also is, we all need more resources to deal with this, because the demands are so incredible on us and the partners that we're working with on the ground.

GEOFF BENNETT: Catherine Russell, executive director of UNICEF, joining us tonight from Sudan, thanks so much.

CATHERINE RUSSELL: Thanks so much.

AMNA NAWAZ: The presidential campaign has kicked into high gear, as Joe Biden and Donald Trump prepare to meet for their first 2024 debate on Thursday.

The two men have been locked in a tight race for months, and no other candidates reached the required polling threshold to be on that stage.

Lisa Desjardins takes a closer look at how polls work with our partners at the Marist poll.

LISA DESJARDINS: Inside the offices of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion... JACOB GRESENS, Survey Assistant, Marist Institute for Public Opinion: My name is Jacob.

I'm a student calling from Marist College.

LISA DESJARDINS: ... there's a buzz in the room.

Over several hours and days, nearly two dozen student workers make hundreds of phone calls and send thousands of text messages.

Overseeing it all... LEE MIRINGOFF, Director, Marist Institute for Public Opinion: It's a neat process.

LISA DESJARDINS: ... Lee Miringoff, the director of the institute, and Barbara Carvalho, the director of the Marist Poll.

BARBARA CARVALHO, Director, Marist Poll: They are the ones that are talking one-on-one with Americans.

LISA DESJARDINS: Talking about issues or... WOMAN: Hello?

LISA DESJARDINS: ... in many, many, many cases... WOMAN: Is there a better time I could call you back?

LISA DESJARDINS: ... not talking at all.

WOMAN: No worries.

Have a great rest of your day.

LISA DESJARDINS: How would you describe the ratio of calls you get all the way through to dials you have to make to get that one good call?

JACOB GRESENS: Yes, on a normal night, it's about 100 to 1.

LISA DESJARDINS: One hundred calls to get one survey?

JACOB GRESENS: Yes.

LISA DESJARDINS: But, on this night, a volunteer.

We are talking to people in your community.

As I hopped on the phones to experience the rejection firsthand.

That's the end, I think.

He hung up.

WOMAN: Start by being engaged and enthusiastic.

LISA DESJARDINS: Me and my fellow callers all were trained for this.

WOMAN: How about we try a few questions and see how it goes?

LISA DESJARDINS: Both online.

WOMAN: The survey should take about 12 minutes.

LISA DESJARDINS: And in person, training required before any calls are made.

Every step of the Marist Poll is carefully considered.

Now is the time for that.

I think that it's going to be hot.

Starting about two weeks before with our team at "News Hour," where we discuss, sometimes disagree politely... MAN: The lead-up to that, it's like... LISA DESJARDINS: It's like -- no, it's -- I know.

It's a nightmare.

... and decide what issues we'd like to raise.

How satisfied are you with the two candidates for president?

Then pollsters at Marist with decades of experience finesse the language and order of the questions.

BARBARA CARVALHO: Make sure that the question is understandable no matter who that person is that may be answering it.

LISA DESJARDINS: Once that wording is set... How satisfied are you with the two major party candidates for president?

... all the callers, including me, ask the exact same questions the exact same way.

ALEXANDRA NEWTON, Survey Operations Manager, Marist Institute for Public Opinion: The reason why everyone is saying the same thing is to not introduce any bias into the survey.

And so that... LISA DESJARDINS: Every single word the same every single time.

ALEXANDRA NEWTON: Every single word the same every single time, no inflection on any word.

LISA DESJARDINS: Breaking up the repetition on the phones, a prize wheel spins in the back of the room, signaling a streak of completed calls.

You may be getting the point here.

In-person calls are not easy and are labor-intensive.

To get a nationally representative and random survey of respondents, the poll relies on companies that aggregate all the telephone numbers in the country.

As technology has evolved, so has the way Marist does this.

Over time, landline calls grew to include cell phones.

And now there are text messages and online responses too.

LEE MIRINGOFF: We just couldn't do telephone surveys because people aren't necessarily going to be responding that way, because we want to use the method that's going to give everybody a known or equal chance of getting into the survey.

STEPHANIE CALVANO, Director of Data Science and Technology, Marist Institute for Public Opinion: This is the data.

LISA DESJARDINS: As the surveys are under way, the results are being carefully monitored by Stephanie Calvano, the director of data science.

STEPHANIE CALVANO: I am running prelim data.

I'm looking at all the frequencies.

LISA DESJARDINS: To the untrained eye, including mine, it might look like endless columns and rows of numbers, but... STEPHANIE CALVANO: Each of these are codes that are the responses to questions.

LISA DESJARDINS: What do you see when you look at this data?

Do you instantly translate it?

STEPHANIE CALVANO: I can, yes.

BARBARA CARVALHO: What do you think the most interesting thing is from these results?

LISA DESJARDINS: The raw data also need context, what pollsters call weighting, mathematical adjustments to make sure the final numbers actually reflect the larger population.

For instance, if one survey happens to get 60 percent of its responses from women, when we know the U.S. population is actually just over 50 percent women, Marist would increase the weight of answers from the men who responded.

LEE MIRINGOFF: The goal of having a representative cross-section of America in this case is where you want to be.

If you want to think of it as a soup recipe, well, what are the ingredients and how much of each ingredient do we want in it, well, that we can find out by literally checking with the census numbers.

LISA DESJARDINS: As the methods and the science have grown more complicated, polling itself has grown more prominent.

MAN: The sitting president has moved into the lead.

LISA DESJARDINS: Becoming a staple of cable news campaign coverage of who's up and who's down.

MAN: Should Trump be worried by those numbers?

NARRATOR: Biden's unprecedented inflation.

LISA DESJARDINS: Shaping the candidates' messages.

NARRATOR: ... convicted criminal who's only out for himself.

NARRATOR: The CNN presidential debate.

LISA DESJARDINS: And even helping decide who qualifies to be on the presidential debate stage this week.

NARRATOR: The most anticipated moment of this election.

LISA DESJARDINS: That matchup will feature just two candidates, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who have consistently pulled at least 15 percent support in national polls.

Polls, including yours, are used as qualifications for debates.

What do you think about that?

LEE MIRINGOFF: That's bad.

We think it's a horrible use of public polls.

LISA DESJARDINS: Why?

LEE MIRINGOFF: Why?

Polls have a scientific basis to them, but that doesn't mean there's not a range in the numbers.

LISA DESJARDINS: A little polling glossary here.

He means the margin of error, the range above and below the poll result, that represents where mathematically the true feelings of the entire country or larger group could be.

JOE BIDEN, President of the United States: So far, the polls haven't been right once.

LISA DESJARDINS: Margin of error, as well as some high-profile differences between polls and election results... DONALD TRUMP, Former President of the United States (R) and Current U.S. Presidential Candidate: The polls are all rigged.

LISA DESJARDINS: ... have helped some candidates fuel public doubts in polling at large.

COURTNEY KENNEDY, Vice President of Methods and Innovation, Pew Research Center: Polls are definitely better for some things than others.

LISA DESJARDINS: Courtney Kennedy is the vice president of methods and innovation at the Pew Research Center.

She says it all comes down to how you use polls.

COURTNEY KENNEDY: Can we use polling to predict the winner in a very competitive election?

The answer is no.

I love polling, but it's just not a precise enough tool to do that.

Polling is absolutely up to that task of giving us a high-level read of how the public feels about a major issue of the day.

LISA DESJARDINS: And not all polls are created equal, which is confusing.

So how should people figure out if a poll is, in a word, good?

COURTNEY KENNEDY: Track record and transparency.

Is this a polling organization that you have heard of that has a track record of doing high-quality, nonpartisan polls or not?

Polls that are willing to disclose more detail about how they do their work, they tend to be more accurate.

LISA DESJARDINS: Where does Marist fit in all that?

COURTNEY KENNEDY: Their track record is one of trying really hard to be nonpartisan and doing rigorous polling.

LISA DESJARDINS: Despite the science and the work to be more transparent, how much do you trust public opinion polls?

Polls themselves have an approval problem.

Trust us, we asked.

During this PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, six in 10 Americans told us they have little to no trust in public opinion polls.

Why do you think people should trust polls?

BARBARA CARVALHO: I don't know that it's about trust and it's about faith.

It should really be about science.

LISA DESJARDINS: Regardless of what they said or whether the trust in polling is irrevocably gone, all those respondents still answered the call.

We're getting close to the end here.

For the PBS "News Hour," I'm Lisa Desjardins on the phones at Marist college in Poughkeepsie, New York.

AMNA NAWAZ: And be sure to tune in to PBS on Thursday at 9:00 p.m. Eastern for our simulcast of the CNN presidential debate with analysis to follow.

GEOFF BENNETT: A pair of decisions by two federal judges has put key parts of President Biden's plan for easing student loan payments on hold and their future in doubt.

William Brangham has the details on the impact.

It's the first part of a two-part focus tonight of our series Rethinking College.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Geoff, judges in two states, Missouri and Kansas, blocked parts of the Biden administration's student loan repayment program known as SAVE.

It offers a way for students and graduates to lower monthly payments and get some debt forgiveness.

More than eight million people are currently enrolled, but these rulings put those key features on pause.

So what does this mean for borrowers?

Danielle Douglas-Gabriel covers higher education for The Washington Post, and she joins us again now.

Danielle, thank you so much for being here again.

Before we get into the arguments embedded in these two cases, can you just remind us what the president and the administration's student loan program was really all about?

Like, who and how was the administration trying to help here?

DANIELLE DOUGLAS-GABRIEL, The Washington Post: So, first, thanks for having me.

And the objective here was really to try to make student loan payments more manageable for the vast majority of Americans who have education debt.

And the way that this would work is protecting more of the income that they earn from the calculation that determines their monthly bills.

This is really built on a plan that has been in existence for 30 years in one iteration or the next, and really just makes it far more generous than what we have seen in the past by making sure that people wouldn't be kind of saddled with unaffordable loan payments while they're trying to afford their mortgages or rents or car payments.

However, the generosity of this plan is what's at issue here and whether or not the Biden administration has legal authority to make such sweeping economic changes without congressional approval.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: And what was the administration's argument for why people who had knowingly taken on debt should get this forgiveness or a reduction in their payments?

DANIELLE DOUGLAS-GABRIEL: Well, honestly, this plan in one iteration or the next has existed since 1993.

And the idea was always let's make sure that people aren't drowning in their student loans as they're trying to make a life for themselves.

But the difference here is the amount of loan forgiveness and the fast path towards loan forgiveness that this plan offered compared to some of the older plans under this suite of income-driven repayment plans.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: So these two suits were brought by this consortium of Republican attorneys general in different states and ruled on by two judges appointed by former President Obama.

What were they arguing about what's the illegal here?

DANIELLE DOUGLAS-GABRIEL: Both of the judges started to question whether the Higher Education Act, which the plan, the SAVE plan, is rooted in, really afforded the administration to make such sweeping changes without congressional approval.

They were questioning that, and they believe that both of these cases have enough merit to move forward.

Both judges also questioned whether, once all of these loans are forgiven, whether there is a potential for states to really miss out on a lot of revenue.

Keep in mind, because of a law that was passed during the pandemic, people who have their student loans forgiven any time before December of 2025 don't have to pay state and federal taxes on it.

And so the states that are involved in this said, hey, we're going to miss out on potential tax revenue if this plan continues on.

But the Education Department and the Biden administration has said there are lots of other student loan forgiveness plans that are currently in play and creating the same kind of potential harm, and why aren't you going after those?

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: So, with these two rulings, what does this mean for the people who are currently -- I think it's eight million or plus people who are currently in that plan?

What happens to them now?

Do their payments suddenly start to go up?

Like, what's the future look like for them?

DANIELLE DOUGLAS-GABRIEL: So, for people who are already enrolled -- and you're right -- about eight million people are a part of the SAVE plan for right now -- their payment structure will stay the same.

Now, the challenge is the final piece of the plan that was supposed to take effect July 1 was going to cut those payments in half.

So it was going to lower it even further.

So they will not be able to take advantage of that.

They will also not be able to take advantage of the loan forgiveness portion of the plan.

Now, the program creates this faster path to forgiveness by saying, hey, if you borrowed less than $12,000 originally and you have been in repayment for 10 years, then we can forgive your remaining balance.

And 400,000 people have benefited from that plan since February.

But that portion has now come to a halt.

And so anyone who was in the queue for that particular kind of forgiveness will not be receiving it as long as this case goes on and until it's resolved.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: So separate from the legal arguments here, how big a blow is this politically for the Biden administration, which has been trying to make a lot of efforts to younger voters to say, look, we are doing these substantive things for you?

This now has got this major roadblock.

DANIELLE DOUGLAS-GABRIEL: I mean, certainly, these decisions undermine the Biden administration's efforts to really stake out a claim as the president who has delivered the most student loan forgiveness and has been the most generous and advantageous towards borrowers.

There's still millions of people who have benefited from Biden's suite of loan forgiveness plans and policies.

And I imagine they will still continue to do so and under all the other policies that are still in play.

But in this particular plan that really was a cornerstone of what the president was trying to do for borrowers and create really a legacy of trying to be more generous and understanding with people who have been saddled with education loans, this really is a hit.

But, look, the cases are still going.

We really don't know what the outcome is, but the two injunctions certainly do signal that the court is willing to entertain these arguments and could ultimately -- the states could prevail.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: All right, Danielle Douglas-Gabriel of The Washington Post, thank you so much for being here again.

DANIELLE DOUGLAS-GABRIEL: Thanks for having me.

GEOFF BENNETT: Now to our second story, about who is going to college.

Enrollment among young Americans has been declining over the past decade, that decrease mostly driven by fewer young men pursuing degrees.

A Pew Research study finds there's about one million fewer young men now enrolled in college compared to 2011.

We took at closer look at why.

That's the second part of our focus tonight on Rethinking College.

Tomorrow morning, in Brentwood, New York, Yordi Velasquez will graduate high school.

But like a growing number of young men, college isn't in his immediate plan.

YORDI VELASQUEZ, High School Student: I started looking to college a little too late, and I couldn't decide on what I wanted to do.

I didn't know where I would get the money from.

And I just think it'd be better if I started working immediately.

GEOFF BENNETT: Raised by a single mother who also cares for his disabled brother, Velasquez says he plans to become a certified HVAC technician.

He hasn't ruled out going to college one day, but says it simply doesn't make sense right now.

YORDI VELASQUEZ: The fact that I would have to pay even though I don't know what I want to do, and that I might not even get a job in the field that I want.

GEOFF BENNETT: He's not alone.

Last year among high school graduates in the U.S., only 57 percent of men have enrolled in college.

That's compared to 65 percent of women.

It's a trend that dates back nearly three decades.

Every year since 1996, women have entered college at higher rates than men.

RICHARD REEVES, Author, "Of Boys and Men: Why the Modern Male Is Struggling, Why It Matters, and What to Do about It": The education system as a whole doesn't seem to be working quite as well for boys as it is for girls.

GEOFF BENNETT: Richard Reeves is the author of "Of Boys and Men: Why the Modern Male Is Struggling, Why It Matters, and What to Do about It."

Men are falling behind in education.

The education gap is bigger now than it was back in 1972, when Title IX passed.

What accounts for that?

RICHARD REEVES: The main reason for that is that, it's through the education system, girls are outperforming boys.

So you can see it from the beginning from kindergarten all the way through high school.

And so if you look at, for example, high school GPA, which is a very good measure of success, take the top 10 percent of high school students.

Two-thirds of them are girls.

That obviously affects what's going to happen in the college system too.

GEOFF BENNETT: Today, men make up only 42 percent of undergraduate students.

And for young men of color, the gap is especially alarming.

There are now 50,000 fewer Black men enrolled in college compared to pre-pandemic levels.

RODERICK CAREY, University of Delaware: I think that college is becoming a tough sell for a lot of men, not necessarily because college isn't a compelling idea, but rather because there are so many other competing factors that might be equally, if not more so desirable.

GEOFF BENNETT: Roderick Carey is an assistant professor at the University of Delaware.

He studies how Black and Latino adolescent boys experience school.

Carey says, for the young men he works with, problems often begin long before college.

RODERICK CAREY: Black and Latino boys grew up in a society that stereotypes them as non-academic, as socially threatening, and many of those types of stereotypes shape how their educators engage with them in schools.

GEOFF BENNETT: More women than men now have college degrees, according to U.S. census data, and they're more likely to graduate within four years compared to men.

It's led some colleges to target male students as a group in need of extra support.

JONATHAN KOPPELL, President, Montclair State University: We're not pretending the problem doesn't exist.

We're trying to address it on.

GEOFF BENNETT: Jonathan Koppell is president of Montclair State University.

How do you craft a program that works to help men that doesn't come at the expense of women?

JONATHAN KOPPELL: Oh, I don't think that this is a matter of either/or, and I don't think this is a matter of putting the needs of female students second.

I think it's a matter of asking the basic question, why do we see differential graduation rates when we sort by gender and race?

And that's where you really start to see this gap widen.

GEOFF BENNETT: More than half of Montclair State students come from under represented groups, and men make up just 40 percent of total enrollment.

So what are some of the consequences if more young men choose not to go to college?

JONATHAN KOPPELL: There's so many consequences.

I don't think that means everybody should get a four-year degree.

I don't think college is for everyone.

But if you look at the data, the data says, in terms of income, in terms of health, in terms of happiness, in terms of life satisfaction, your odds are better with a four-year degree.

GEOFF BENNETT: In 2022, Montclair State launched what's known as the Male Enrollment and Graduation Alliance, a task force that's now developing programs that aim to recruit and retain more men.

DANNY JEAN, Associate Provost for Educational Opportunity and Success Programs, Montclair State University: So if you're experiencing any level of instability in your life, you are not alone.

GEOFF BENNETT: Danny Jean, the university's assistant provost for special programs, helps lead the initiative.

Last spring, he welcomed 300 high schoolers from nearby cities in New Jersey.

For many, it was their first time on a college campus.

DANNY JEAN: Please give all of them a round of applause.

GEOFF BENNETT: For Jean, who grew up in inner-city Newark and later earned a Ph.D., it was a chance to share his own story.

DANNY JEAN: My family moved over 12 times before I graduated from high school.

We were actually homeless at one time.

I had to move with family members.

I graduated high school with a 1.9 GPA, a teacher that told me I wouldn't be alive to see 25, alcoholics in my family, drug users in my family.

So this work is very personal for me.

GEOFF BENNETT: So what have you found that works?

What's the key to providing access and then once students do get admitted making sure that they're successful?

DANNY JEAN: They really need to understand the benefit of college and help them understand exactly what college can offer and be able to map out what their plan is beyond high school.

MAN: Coming here was tough freshman year.

GEOFF BENNETT: And beyond academic help, Jean says some of the men also need social and emotional support once they arrive on campus.

He meets often with a student organization that aims to do just that.

IKENNA ONYEGBULE, Montclair State University: Brotherhood has allowed me to be confident.

GEOFF BENNETT: Ikenna Onyegbule and Nyron Mitchell help lead this group known as the Brotherhood.

IKENNA ONYEGBULE: So it's important that men get support from each other, because we don't get it enough.

And everybody bottles in their emotions.

You have to keep this persona of being a tough guy.

And it wasn't until I got here until I figured that that's not the way to go.

NYRON MITCHELL, Montclair State University: In the future, I want young men to realize is, it's like it's OK to come out your comfort zone.

When you come out your comfort zone, at the end of the day, when you walk in that stage in May, you're going to be grateful for it.

GEOFF BENNETT: Last month, Mitchell did graduate with a degree in family science.

Ikenna, a business administration major, will do the same later this year.

They say, beyond the degree, college is already paying off.

IKENNA ONYEGBULE: Professionalism, time management, respect among others, how to work with other people, all of that you can learn in college if you do college the right way.

GEOFF BENNETT: Meantime, back in Brentwood, New York, Yordi Velasquez says he's comfortable with his own decision.

YORDI VELASQUEZ: I feel like I'm entering a new chapter of my life, and it's always exciting.

I have always wondered what it's like to be a grown-up, so now I get to experience it.

GEOFF BENNETT: As colleges around the country try to figure out why so many young men are choosing a different path.

AMNA NAWAZ: Remember, there's a lot more online, including a look at why Ukrainian children are appearing on Russian adoption sites and the efforts to bring them home.

You can find that story and much more on our YouTube channel.

GEOFF BENNETT: And join us again here tomorrow night, when Judy Woodruff reports on the growing political divide within some Christian communities as religious affiliation declines.

And that is the "News Hour" for tonight.

I'm Geoff Bennett.

AMNA NAWAZ: And I'm Amna Nawaz.

On behalf of the entire "News Hour" team, thank you for joining us.