♪ Gavin Jackson> Welcome to This Week in South Carolina.

I'm Gavin Jackson.

This week, we're looking at the future of the Catholic Church, with a new pope set to be selected soon.

But first we discuss the latest Winthrop poll findings with Scott Huffmon.

He's a political science professor at Winthrop University.

He's the author of the Winthrop poll.

Scott, welcome back.

Scott Huffmon> Thank you for having me.

Gavin> We can also ask you about the Pope if you want to, but actually, let's just focus on your poll findings and the first hundred days of the Trump presidency.

That being said, Scott, your poll found feelings toward President Trump split among South Carolinians, with 44% expressing very or somewhat positive feelings toward the president and 43% very or somewhat negative.

His support among Republicans is pretty much unwavering as well, according to your poll.

So, but when you look at this number, this split, do you think that number should be higher for a president this early in their presidency?

Scott> Usually it is, usually for presidents, you know, in early in their presidency, they did a honeymoon period.

A second term president usually doesn't get as high of a honeymoon period in their approval ratings.

You know, certainly since we've had polling, we haven't had a president who's had split two terms, like Trump has.

But, you know, Trump came in as a known entity, and the people who were anti-Trump were strongly anti-Trump.

The people who were pro-Trump strongly so, as well.

The interesting thing about South Carolina, again, we poll the general population, not just registered voters and certainly not likely voters for any, election a year and a half away.

But that means we have a significant percentage of people with no opinion.

So if you look at national polls, you'll see disapproval ratings of around 53%.

And that disapproval rating in South Carolina is, you know, about nine points lower than that.

So Trump's doing pretty well in South Carolina, if you look at only people who have an opinion, nationally, he's at best, at 40%.

In South Carolina he's pushing 50% with that.

So again, in red South Carolina, he's doing well.

But hard core Republicans in South Carolina forget there's a whole lot of Democrats here, as well, which contributes to that split opinion.

Gavin> And Scott, like you were mentioning, you know, we're about 13 months away from the June primaries here in South Carolina.

Then, of course, the midterms, next fall.

So it's still so early, but, should any of this be a concern for the base when you look at not just your poll, but when you look at some of these national polls that showed Trump kind of towards the bottom of the barrel when it comes to his predecessors in approval ratings at this stage, in his presidency, his first 100 days, should that be, you know, a warning sign to some folks who are up for reelection next year who are tied so closely to him?

Scott> Well, to the degree that they're tied to Trump and the independent voters, even independent voters who lean Republican, to the degree they start feeling the economic impacts of some of Trump's policies that could lead them "to take it out", quote, unquote, on Trump in the midterm elections and would put them at risk.

Now, none of the congressional districts in South Carolina are really in danger of flipping from one party to the other.

They're pretty heavily gerrymandered at this point.

But nationally, you could actually see the House flip, the Senate come close to flipping if Trump's policies really hit the pocketbooks of the average voter.

Now, his hardcore voters will tolerate some economic pain because they really voted for Trump more for ideological reasons, more for symbolic reasons.

And he is carrying out the policies they, you know, wanted him to carry out.

But to the more moderate voter, they're going to be a little upset if Trump's policies hurt them in the pocketbook, and they may take it out in the midterm elections in 2026.

Gavin> Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how all this shakes out, because we continue to see reporting on, you know... previous Trump voters who are now having some buyer's remorse and then the tariffs and the ups and downs of it all.

But you pulled the popularity of the governor and Senators Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott.

All three have lower overall approval ratings than Trump.

And that includes among Republicans, despite being so closely aligned to him.

Is there any reasoning behind that, just because they're, they're little deviations between them and Trump and folks are more drawn toward the president than, you know.

You know, perhaps you could call Lindsey Graham or the governor a 'RINO' or Tim Scott, not as closely aligned with the president.

What do you make up for the difference between those popularity ratings?

Scott> Well, generally, it comes from more people having no opinion.

The ten point difference among Republicans between Donald Trump and Governor McMaster, if you look at only the approval ratings, it seems that Trump's much higher, but the disapproval ratings are lower and the differences really among people who have no opinion.

Now, you know, people who are watching this show, people who pay attention to politics, of course, have an opinion on the governor.

They know what the governor is doing.

But your day to day person who the only news they might get be it national or cable news, honestly don't know what the governor is doing day to day.

They're not familiar with what a senator does day to day, unless that senator makes the national news like Lindsey Graham does.

Now, Lindsey Graham's popularity among Republicans is notably lower than, you know, that of Tim Scott and Governor Henry McMaster.

However, he's still above water with Republicans, but the fact that he's lower might attract a primary challenge.

But he's got a huge war chest.

He's still above water with Republicans.

And so there's going to be a lot of calculations going on as whether he may be vulnerable in a primary or not.

Gavin> And we've seen Lindsey Graham challenge over the years too, and always make it through without even getting into a runoff, even when he has, you know, up to like five or so challengers.

And you were just recently quoted in a Washington Post article about Senator Graham, who's up for reelection next year, about his strategy.

And you said that, you know, he continues to survive.

Graham's a survivor.

You've said that on this show before.

So what will his strategy be essentially at this point again?

It's still so early, but does it matter of just staying close to Trump and being as visible as possible with Trump, whether that's golfing with Trump and the Finnish prime minister or, you know, keeping on the Sunday shows and just really trying to push through budget reconciliation to get a lot of those big wins for the Trump administration?

Scott> Well, in the primary, he does need to be seen as somebody who's, who's closer to Trump.

Again, we'll have to see how the economy plays out.

Those are not the folks who are concerned about that who are going to be voting in the primary.

If you look back, you know, because of actual negative things that Senator Graham said about Trump ...before Trump's first run.

Lindsey Graham's popularity among Republicans was much lower.

It shot through the roof when he became Trump's attack dog over Brett Kavanaugh.

Now it has, you know, waned a little bit, especially as Lindsey Graham has been seeing as wavering sometimes against, sometimes for, especially in foreign policy.

But Lindsey Graham has always known which way the wind blows.

And when he hoists the sails in 2026, there's a good chance he'll know how to sail back into victory.

Gavin> And we'll be watching, of course.

I want to go back to your poll, Scott, because you also report on several transgender questions, such as requiring that transgender athletes compete on teams that match the sex they were assigned at birth, not the gender they identify with.

71% are in favor or strongly favoring laws or policies that would enforce that.

This ticked up 9% from when you asked a similar question in the spring of 2023.

So what does that increase tell you after that, after that time has passed, despite a law addressing this in our state, for an incredibly small minority of cases?

Are we just, is this issue of transgender issues and rights and access becoming just more, fervent in some ways?

>> It's becoming more of a wedge issue.

The number of people who are transgender are a fraction of a fraction, far less than even 1% of the population, and according to some estimates, 0.6%.

This is not a something, not something that needs to be addressed, like real policy in most people's minds if they looked at those numbers, but it is a strong ideological wedge issue.

Now, the majority of respondents do not want overt discrimination against transgender individuals.

You know, saying they can't go into restaurants or they can't rent an apartment.

But when it comes to doctors offices, bathrooms, locker rooms, they do not want transgender individuals in those spaces.

Why is it more prevalent now?

Well, the politicians have made it more prevalent.

Again, this has become an ideological symbol.

It is, signaling to your tribe as to how you feel ideologically about this issue.

And it is something that Republicans have strongly brought forward.

And that makes it in the forefront of people's minds.

We even, you know, our congresswoman from South Carolina in the first district, Nancy Mace, has made this her recent hallmark of issues that she's speaking about because she knows her base is very much concerned about this issue.

Gavin> Yeah.

And to that, to that fact, Scott, I mean, she's a potential gubernatorial candidate.

No one's declared yet for that 2026 race.

And of course, that primary is next June.

So we've talked previously about your previous poll in terms of name I.D., and she certainly has a degree of that compared to some folks who might also be in this field.

So, but when it comes to those issues, when it comes to transgender issues, specifically in South Carolina, you know, we're talking about, things that you polled on, in terms of which bathrooms people can use and... in public schools here, that law is in effect.

It's been in effect since last year.

We just talked about transgender sports.

That law has been in effect for several years and also banning, gender affirming care for minors that went into effect earlier this year.

So a lot of those big issues that you're talking about when it comes to transgender rights and access have kind of been taken care of.

So, is it just really a matter of still just beating that drum, despite there really not being much more juice to squeeze out of this orange or whatever you want to call this issue when it comes to transgender issues?

Scott> Again, it's beating a drum but not beating a dead horse.

It's beating a drum because it is in the forefront of people's minds, especially strong Republicans, because it's being talked about at the national level to the degree that people pay more attention to national news, to the degree that they are in a silo of news so that they are only hearing news that sort of, conforms to their existing opinions.

It's going to remain in the forefront of their mind.

They're not going to think to themselves, hey, when it comes to a state election, I should realize that these issues I'm concerned about have been dealt with at the state issue.

That's not how they're looking at it.

They're looking at it as a national issue.

And, you know, 50 years ago, when "Tip" O'Neill was saying all politics are local might still have been relevant, this might not be the issue.

However, now all politics are national, and any issue that is extremely loud and extremely in front of potential voters at the national level are going to be in the forefront of the mind of state level voters, as well, whether it's been, quote unquote, "taking care of or not".

Gavin> Yeah.

I mean, it comes when it comes to another issue like that, D.E.I., diversity, equity, inclusion.

That's something also that's very buzzy, very national and something that state lawmakers tried to address this year, at least in the House.

They passed a bill, that would prohibit state agencies, local governments and institutions of higher education from violating federal discrimination laws with D.E.I.

initiatives.

Again, that's some, some language that echoes Trump's executive orders on this matter.

But of course, that got out of the House and it's been stuck in the Senate, not expected to pass with three days, three legislative days left in this session.

So again, that's probably would be another one of those wedge issues where they can beat that drum, like you're saying, but at the same time, you found some interesting findings when it came to how people feel about D.E.I.

issues.

So maybe it's not the same wedge issue as you would say with transgender issues.

Scott> Well, it's definitely a partisan wedge issue, but your, you know, average South Carolinian, not your strong partisan, not just your, registered voters actually feel a little more positive about D.E.I., diversity, equity and inclusion, than people who don't.

There's a 10% gap between those who see it as okay.

However, when you look at the partisan gap, it is real.

D.E.I.

has become a trigger word for Republicans.

They are definitely triggered every time that is brought up.

You know, Trump and the federal government have been hammering it home.

The state level government has picked up that flag and run with it.

So, for partisans, it really is in the forefront of their mind.

But for, you know, the average citizen who has, you know, a day to day life that they have to deal with, this is not something that they're worrying about every day.

Gavin> And, Scott, when we look at, the first hundred days when we look at the Trump presidency, it's somewhat of an arbitrary marker.

Of course, you talked about this too.

But, you know, it's interesting to see how it's been shaking out with, you know, we're talking about, drops in consumer sentiment.

The D.O.G.E.

cuts are hitting government spending.

There's been wild swings in the stock market.

We've seen market declines.

We've seen the lowest stock market, since the modern presidency, when it comes to how it's been performing the first hundred days, but at the same time, folks would say that Trump has done what he was saying he's going to do.

He's increased these executive orders.

He's pushed a lot of his issues.

All of them are tied up in the courts.

So it's hard to say that there's a win.

But how do you kind of sum up the first 100 days of this presidency for Donald Trump, his second term in office?

Scott> Well, you know, the economic policies have hit the average person a lot less than someone listening to the news would think the tariffs are only now beginning to affect the day to day buying of the average person, mainly because the threat of tariffs that hadn't kicked in, the withdrawing of the threat of tariffs was affecting the stock market, and while 62%, 63% (percent) of Americans own stock, 10% of Americans own 91% of the stock.

So the average person is not getting their income from the stock market.

Only people who are drawing their retirement are really being affected by that.

So the, you know, average person who's looking at these stock markets, it may be an indicator to how they feel about the economy, but it won't be until really this hits their day to day purchasing ability that they will really begin having an opinion based on those things rather than an opinion based on, "Hey, Trump is coming in and doing the social issues "that he said he was going to do on immigration, "on D.E.I., on transgender issues.

"I'm still behind him on that."

Now, when the more moderate Republicans, again begin to feel the effects of those economic policies, all that could change.

But the first hundred days for most presidents, you don't really feel the impact of their policies.

Now, that said, like in everything else, Trump is different.

Gavin> And really quickly, Scott, it'd be remiss if I didn't bring up the Canadian election that happened on Monday, where we saw the liberals retain their government with the election of Mark Carney, and that was fueled by Trump's brash threats and a talk directed at our northern neighbor.

This election was the conservatives to lose, essentially, they're in the lead on this one, but do you take this as a warning sign for other, political situations worldwide or even, again, locally when we look forward toward the midterms?

Scott> Well, it's definitely, I think, a harbinger of what's going to happen internationally.

If you look at polls of Canadian voters, the gap between the conservatives and the liberals was just massive.

As you said, it was the conservatives election to lose.

They were coasting to victory until Trump's rhetoric began.

Then the fortunes completely flipped.

And I think we're going to see that on more of the right leaning parties, across Europe, across the world.

Now, people who support the far right parties are going to continue to do so.

But the more moderate right parties, they're going to bleed voters off to the more liberal leaning parties, if Trump's rhetoric continues.

Gavin> Scott Hoffman, with Winthrop University, thank you so much.

Scott> My pleasure.

Thank you.

Gavin> Joining me now from Rome is University of South Carolina history professor, Carol Harrison.

She is an expert on the Catholic Church and is a fellow of the American Academy in Rome.

Professor Harrison, thanks for joining us.

Carol Harrison> Thank you.

Gavin> So, while this isn't exactly a South Carolina focused topic, we couldn't pass up talking with an expert who's on the ground in Rome here during this historic moment.

And you've been there for seven months, you've told me previously.

So with that being said, we did see the passing of Pope Francis the day after Easter.

He was the leader of the Catholic Church, the 1.4 billion strong Catholic Church for 12 years.

So tell us about what it's been like on the ground in Rome, what you've been seeing, maybe where you were when the news hit and what it's been like on the ground there.

>> Well, the whole, like I, and of course, the whole city of Rome followed his illness.

And, I remember talking to a cab driver who told me I knew something was up because he was picking up clients from the hospital where the Pope... was staying.

And they rerouted the taxis.

And so he knew that something was up.

So the whole city has been paying attention to Francis' illness.

And of course, everyone thought that he was getting better, that he was resting.

And everyone was really very happy to hear that he appeared in Saint Peter's Square on Easter.

And then, of course, Easter morning the news came, or the Easter Monday, the news came that he had died, and I think that recast everything we had thought about the last few days.

It became obvious that he wasn't actually really trying to get better.

He was trying to ensure that he died working, that he died speaking to people, that he died as a pastor.

Gavin> And obviously with his passing, it's sad, but also, I'm sure there's joy, too, because he's gone on, but there's also a celebration of life, too.

What has that mood been like too, that sorrow mixed with joy in celebrating his life?

Carol> Well, something like 250,000 people lined up to see Francis in the couple of days after his death.

I was one of them.

I live about a half hour walk from the Vatican, and I walked down to see him after dinner one night.

I had heard.

And the official word was that, visitation would take place until midnight.

I was still in line at midnight.

The crowds were enormous.

The authorities decided to keep Saint Peter's open pretty much all night.

There were that many people who wanted to, to see Francis and to pay their respects, and similarly, the crowds that watched his body process from Saint Peter's to the church where he has been buried, Santa Maria Maggiore, across the city.

Enormous crowds.

Gavin> So tell me about, you know, being a historian and also knowing about the Catholic Church so extensively, what do you see Pope Francis' legacy being at this point?

Carol> Well, the Catholic Church is a very, very old institution and it changes very slowly.

So, I would be reluctant to make any definitive pronouncements about what Francis' legacy will be.

And also, of course, it depends significantly on his successor.

But Francis has been, has brought a new style, a new openness, and a new humility, I think, to the church.

His emphasis on synodality, on a church that is more horizontal, that is less hierarchical, less inclined to defer to priests, more interested in the laity, and more interested in all kinds of laity.

Right?

Open to listening to women, open to listening to homosexuals, to the poor, to migrants.

That's, I think, been enormously significant.

Gavin> And you mentioned that his successor, his successor will play a role in solidifying that legacy.

How do you, how do you see that playing out, and obviously they have to make their own way too, But, do you think that there is a way for I mean...

I guess it comes down to what happens in the Conclave, which we'll talk about in a moment, but in terms of, you know, if it's a more conservative successor or someone who's maybe more in line with him, does it come down to whether they, fall in line, and follow in line of what he did or, make a hard pivot in some sense?

Carol> Both are possible, right?

There may be a new pope who seeks to confirm strengthen Francis' policies.

There may be one who seeks to reverse it.

Both are very possible.

For many people, as I said, the changes Francis brought were in many ways a matter of style.

People who wanted to see, for instance, the ordination of women, either as priests or a smaller step as deacons within the church, were disappointed.

Right?

There was no actual move in that direction.

People who hoped to see the ordination of married men as priests, in certain, in certain dioceses where there are serious absences of priests.

They were also disappointed.

All of the questions were opened.

All of the questions were put on the table.

Very few were definitively resolved under Francis.

So there's a lot that remains up in the air.

Gavin> Yeah.

Like you were saying, it takes a lot of a lot of work to make any change in that institution, so even just bringing that question up is just one tick in the direction that, you know, someone else could continue carrying that ball in.

And so with that being- Carol> -and a significant one.

Yeah.

Gavin> And with that being said, you know, the upcoming Conclave starts May 7th.

Tell us about this secretive process, as much as you know about it and what we can expect to see over the coming days.

Carol> Well, I should say I, I know no more than the average informed observer.

The people who really know what happens in the Conclave are the cardinals.

And, and they don't talk about it a lot.

We know that this will be, a different sort of Conclave.

This will be a bigger Conclave than usual.

There will be something like 133 voting cardinals.

Most of them have been named by Francis.

We know that this switch, which, I should say that the fact that there were named by Francis does not mean that they are all walking in lockstep with him.

We know that there are far more cardinals from the global south.

So this will be a less European, less western Conclave.

But exactly what those facts, well, how they will play out is, is not at all clear.

Just reading the press, the U.S. press, the Italian press in the last week, I think I've probably read 20 biographical sketches of possible candidates.

Gavin> Well, yeah, we'll find out.

Right?

Betting on the smoke, too, coming out the Sistine Chapel.

But, professor, when we talk about this and we, we look at the previous, his predecessors there, John Paul the second was elected on the third day after eight ballots.

Benedict was elected on the second day after four ballots, and Francis on the second day after five ballots.

They also have different ranges in their tenures, too; with John Paul, Pope John Paul the second going for 26 years, and he was elected at 58.

Benedict was elected at 78.

Francis was 76.

So, I mean, I'm assuming that we're going to probably be seeing someone in our 70s, perhaps.

I mean, when we saw John Paul the Second, I mean, he was the young pope and he was 58.

Right?

So, I mean, I guess it just depends on what kind of message these cardinals might be trying to send when it comes to the future of Catholicism.

Carol> The age is certainly something they look at.

It is destabilizing for the church to go through many, many popes very quickly.

John Paul, the second's predecessor, John Paul the first, died almost immediately.

Right.

That's very destabilizing.

So, age, health, that is definitely something, people are interested, that cardinals will be interested in.

I don't, as you said, most Conclaves really in the last 200 years have been wrapped up within less than a week.

So I don't anticipate this will be an enormously long process.

The, the, the famously long conclaves, the conclave that gave the name, it's... that gave the process its name, Conclave.

It was the 13th century when that went on for several years until finally people just locked them in and said, you know, you can have dinner when you're done.

You can come out when you have a decision.

That one doesn't happen anymore.

But exactly what will go on beyond that, if anyone says they know they're... they're probably blowing smoke.

Gavin> And Professor Harrison, with just less than a minute left here.

We don't have a very large Catholic population in the state.

We have about 218,000 registered Catholics here, but that's increased since we saw Pope John Paul second come to our state in 1987.

With that being said, what challenges face the church right now?

And where do you see the church going?

Is it becoming more conservative or more moderate?

How do you see things right now in 2025?

Carol> Oh, enormous challenges, face the church.

The American church in particular, the challenge of sexual abuse, which is an ongoing crisis.

That... would be premature to say that is over or even that the church's direction has been definitively set.

That is absolutely an ongoing crisis.

The Church's responses to migration, because the church is very interested in migration and in the dignity and safety of migrants.

That's a serious issue.

And here in Rome, church finances are also a really big issue.

The church has serious financial problems.

Gavin> And unfortunately, professor, we have to leave it there.

That's University of South Carolina history professor, Carol Harrison in Rome.

thank you so much for joining us.

And that's...it for us this week.

I'm Gavin Jackson for South Carolina ETV.

Be Well, South Carolina.

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