Two Cents
Is Your Job Future-Proof?
8/4/2021 | 7m 3sVideo has Audio Description, Closed Captions
Are robots coming for YOUR job?
AI and machine learning are making inroads into fields never thought possible... Are robots coming for YOUR job?
See all videos with Audio DescriptionADProblems with Closed Captions? Closed Captioning Feedback
Problems with Closed Captions? Closed Captioning Feedback
Two Cents
Is Your Job Future-Proof?
8/4/2021 | 7m 3sVideo has Audio Description, Closed Captions
AI and machine learning are making inroads into fields never thought possible... Are robots coming for YOUR job?
See all videos with Audio DescriptionADProblems with Closed Captions? Closed Captioning Feedback
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Learn Moreabout PBS online sponsorshipIf you went back in time a hundred years or so, you'd see a lot of people doing jobs that don't exist anymore.
Since most homes didn't have refrigeration, milkmen delivered dairy to your doorstep every morning and had an affair with your wife, if '50s comedy is accurate.
Elevators were driven like streetcars, which meant elevator operators had to be trained to ensure a smooth and precise ride for passengers.
Phone lines weren't automated, [lines ringing] so switchboard operators were needed to connect you to your party.
Even the bowling alley had a team of manual pinsetters to prepare your next frame.
These jobs may seem quaint or even absurd by today's standards, but don't feel too superior.
Perhaps a hundred years from now someone will look back at your job and wonder why you were necessary.
♪ Fear of technological unemployment is nothing new.
As far back as 350 B.C., Aristotle contemplated the idea of machines performing human labor.
During the Industrial Revolution, textile workers known as Luddites destroyed the newfangled machinery at the factory.
And the steel-driving man of folklore, John Henry, literally killed himself competing against a steam-powered machine.
In 1930, the famed economist John Maynard Keynes took a more optimistic view of the problem, predicting that automation and technology would soon allow people to work only 15 hours a week.
That would've been nice.
Of course, today we know that neither Keynes nor the Luddites had it quite right.
Technology has made us far more productive, but it seems there's still plenty of work to be done.
Most economists argue that technology doesn't so much eliminate jobs as change them, that the number of tasks rendered obsolete are more than made up for by new ones.
So instead of switchboard operators, [ringing] now we have cell phone repairmen, broadband technicians, and mobile app developers.
This may be cold comfort if you happen to have spent half a lifetime becoming the fastest switchboard operator in the West, but if it's any consolation, there are plenty of other workers in the same boat.
Automation has been changing manufacturing and agriculture for some time.
We're used to seeing robots in factories and on farms, but recently the machines have been expanding their territory.
Automatic kiosks are replacing cashiers and bank tellers.
Fast food companies are experimenting with burger-flipping robots.
And one robocaller can disrupt as many dinners [ringing] as a whole floor of telemarketers.
Thanks to advancements in artificial intelligence, self-driving vehicles are quickly becoming a reality, putting at risk anyone who makes a living behind the wheel of a cab, truck, or bus.
Amazon is even implementing unmanned drones to deliver packages.
Basically, any job that involves repetitive, predictable tasks is ripe for automation.
But the machines aren't just coming for the blue collars.
Clerical jobs are getting automated as well.
Insurance underwriters and loan officers, who research an individual or company's history and calculate a precise level of risk, are being replaced by algorithms that can crunch more data faster and more accurately.
Purchasing agents, who maintain a company's stock of merchandise and equipment, are outperformed by computers that can order, track, and invoice at a higher volume.
And lawyers, with access to vast online databases, have less need for paralegals and secretaries.
Even tax preparers and financial advisers are feeling the heat from apps and websites that analyze a customer's portfolio and give custom guidance.
Okay, now this is getting scary.
So, what jobs aren't threatened by technology's pitiless advance?
Well, no job is safe forever, but if you at least want to buy yourself some time, you can focus on new and burgeoning industries.
Careers in genetics, video game design, and social media marketing have seen strong growth in recent years.
Alternative energy and sustainability are also on the rise.
And it's no coincidence that that there's high demand in the fields of robotics and data science.
That's right, you can get a good job teaching robots and algorithms to take other people's jobs away.
Kidding, not kidding.
Another field that seems to be safe for the time being is the arts.
Some cutting edge software companies are developing AI that can write poems, draw pictures, compose music, even design fashion.
And while they might be impressive from a technological standpoint, none of them are close to competing with human artists.
It may sometimes feel like franchise movies and pop songs are written by computers, but I assure you there are real people behind them, I think.
So, congratulations, poets and musicians!
You can now brag to your insurance underwriter brother that you made a better career decision.
However, your plumber cousin has got the better of both of you.
Trades like plumbing, electrical, and HVAC are well paid and fairly protected from automation.
That's because they are often unpredictable, and machines do not do well with unpredictability.
These workers are called out to random homes and businesses, asked to diagnose and fix unexpected problems.
Robots have a long way to go before they can match that kind of flexibility.
But perhaps the most future-proof jobs in America are the ones that rely on interpersonal interactions-- social workers, counselors, occupational therapists, clergy.
The more tact and compassion required, the safer the job is from technological replacement.
Even if a computer could understand the complexities of human emotion, it still couldn't form the bonds of trust and mutual respect that these workers must forge with their clients.
Particularly in demand right now and for the foreseeable future is elderly care.
Not only does the profession require a distinctly human touch, America's elderly population is quickly reaching historic levels.
We may be headed for a severe labor shortage in this field, one that robots aren't ready to fill.
Neither humans nor computers are too good at predicting the future, so take all of this with a grain of salt.
One thing is certain though-- technology keeps moving, and not much can stop it.
You may think you have a cutting edge job, but so did the elevator operator once.
The best thing you can do to protect yourself is to pay attention to innovations in your field and be ready to learn new skills.
Your job may someday get taken over by a robot, but someone has to design that robot, and build it, and program it, and maintain it, and supervise it.
Somebody already in the field is in a better position to take one of those new jobs when the old one goes the way of the milkman.
(both) And that's our two cents.
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