♪ Welcome to This Week in South Carolina.

I'm Gavin Jackson.

This week we're talking about hurricane season.

And to do that, I'm joined by Kim Stenson.

He's the director of the South Carolina Emergency Management Division.

Kim, welcome back.

Happy hurricane season.

>> Oh, thank you very much.

Looking forward to it.

Gavin> Yeah, we didn't really see too much last year, which is a good thing other than us talking about what's going on with hurricane season.

So I kind of want to kind of get your idea about what's going on right now.

We saw NOAA's forecasts come out and the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season is underway.

June 1st.

The last big storm we saw was Hurricane Ian back in 2022.

We've been relatively quiet, but I know that NOAA is now calling for an above normal hurricane season.

So when they talk about that, they're talking about 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes and 4 to 7 major hurricanes.

So Kim...when you see that kind of information, when you see that forecast, what does that signal to you in preparation for the season?

Kim> Well, there's two parts to it.

The first part is it really doesn't mean much in terms of our preparation at the state and local level in emergency management.

One thing that we can pretty much take for granted is that almost every year we're going to have a hurricane come somewhere nearby in South Carolina.

It may or may not affect us like a hurricane in Idalia last year wasn't a big storm, but it came to near South Carolina and we had to take the appropriate action.

And but we went through our hurricane decision making and recommendation process with the governor, and we validated that.

So that was good.

So we're really not going to do anything different than we normally do in terms of that preparation.

But the second point really would be because it looks like it's going to be a very active year that we would stress citizen preparedness in terms of our citizens, knowing the threat and being able to respond individually when we do have a hurricane affecting South Carolina.

Gavin> Yeah, because things really start to move quickly when those situations happen, when we see something spinning off the coast and we go through a checklist there.

But tell us when it comes to what you all do in preparation, Kim, what goes into that?

So when we do have some sort of disturbance off the coast in the Atlantic, you guys are ready to go through the motions.

What what goes into it right now?

Kim> Well, there's a couple of plans that we update every year, and they've either been updated or be updated by the end of this month.

And one of them is the State emergency operations plan, which identifies missions and responsibilities for state agencies for any event, not just a hurricane event, but what's in the emergency operations plan is sort of the 90% solution.

We tend to do the same things for each event, you know, we'll have sheltering.

We may have some evacuation.

There will be health and medical concerns and that sort of thing.

But that's the 90% solution.

So we have some hazard specific plans for those events that make up that 10% so that we make sure that we get all those details and...planning in position for events.

And we have a very detailed hurricane plan which covers evacuation and sheltering and traffic control points and that sort of thing.

So that plan will be updated by the end of this month.

It should be coming out shortly for this year.

And so we go through that.

We have hurricane workshops for state agencies.

Recently, the governor conducted the coastal tour down in Charleston in conjunction with the National Weather Service and NOAA Hurricane Hunters down in Charleston again to get that awareness out to our citizens to ensure that they're ready for hurricane season.

And then we'll have a governor's table top with state agency heads next month.

And they will discuss with the governor in terms of any issues that they might have and then also make sure that we're prepared to move forward.

And he...gets to hear that.

Gavin> And that table top is really just more of a rough run through of what needs to happen when in a scenario.

Kim> Exactly.

Yeah, it'll start out with evacuation and then there'll be a response and recovery modules.

And in many ways it's, we call it a table top exercise, but in many ways it's a back brief to the governor so that he knows that his state agencies are ready for, in this case, a hurricane situation.

>> And everyone be on the same page.

Kim, what's new this year in the toolkit?

I know there's been some discussion about new zones, coastal evacuation zones.

What do people need to know?

What's new for folks?

What's new for y'all at the point?

>> Well, we overhauled the evacuation zones this year for really the first time in about ten years.

And what we're looking at is making them more flexible and ensuring that we're evacuating the right number of people.

We want to make sure everybody gets out of harm's way.

Certainly if they're in harm's way.

But at the same time, we want to be very careful about not over evacuating.

And if we over evacuate, then it runs into compliance issues later on for future events where you tell me to evacuate the last time and I didn't have to do that.

So one of the big points this year for the evacuation zones is we've got basically what I'll call a barrier island evacuation zone.

So if it looks like it's just going to affect the barrier islands in a particular area, then we just evacuate those people there.

We would recommend that to the governor anyways.

And then, you know, we can evacuate all zones if we need to, but it just gives us some more flexibility on the risk and making sure we don't over evacuate.

Gavin> Mm hmm.

Yeah, Kim because, you know, we have recently been a little fortunate when it comes to evacuations.

It's been a while since we've had to do that, but we have recently done lane reversals back, I think, during Hurricane Florence in 2018, maybe also in 2019, around those times when we had back to back hurricanes.

So you've all really learned how to handle that now.

So really, it sounds like you're trying to take a maybe a little more tailor made approach to it when it comes to evacuating, when it has to really directly impact a specific region more so.

Kim> That's absolutely correct.

Is we just want to make sure that they're flexible and we don't evacuate people that don't need to, but at the same time ensure that we're going to evacuate those that are truly at risk.

And Kim, walk us through that decision making process.

Obviously, the governor makes that call, but you and other members make recommendations to them during that...that moment.

Usually it's 24 to 48 hours, I think, before impact of a storm.

So kind of walk us through what happens in the emergency operations center when you all are presented with this data and how this decision is made, essentially?

Kim> Well, we establish what we call a disaster intelligence group a few years ago, and that group takes a look at the science and seeing where we're at and then makes projections, you know, in some cases as much as 70 to 96 hours out.

They will develop possible scenarios ranging from most likely to most dangerous, to least likely.

And we work through that.

We make sure that the state agencies are aware of that.

And then we also make sure that the local authorities in the coastal counties, they're all read into that as well.

So we go through that process and it's updated daily, sometimes more often than that, leading up to a recommendation of the governor.

A part of the process, very critical part of the process is to ensure that the local authorities agree with any recommendations we might make.

And so we've been very fortunate we get consensus.

I personally call each one of the county emergency management directors every morning and say, Hey, where are we at on this?

And then, you know, soon after that, we go into a meeting with the governor and say, "Okay, this is what we're looking at right now."

So it's a collective process.

It's not done unilaterally.

And then- Gavin> -top down.

You really want to know what's going on the ground before you push something out.

Kim> Absolutely.

Absolutely.

Gavin> So, Kim, with a couple of minutes left here, I wanted to ask, you know, we have a bit of a more active part of our season too, later in the year.

But what should folks be doing right now in preparation?

I mean, of course, we always say it just takes one big storm.

We're talking about possibly 4 to 7 major storms out there this season.

What do people need to start doing now that things are pretty relatively calm at this point?

Kim> Sure.

Well, the first thing is everybody needs to know whatever the threat is not just for hurricanes, but know the threat and then have a plan If you have to evacuate or you think you're going to need to evacuate, where are you going to go?

If you if you think that you're going to stay, make sure that you have a supply kit to get you through a few days.

We generally recommend at least three days worth of food and water, having access to a battery operated radio.

Make sure that you've got bedding to take to a shelter if you need to go.

But everybody, certainly in the coastal area, if they're...have to evacuate, should know where they're going to go.

And we will... we'll put shelters together.

You know, we'll validate those.

But, you know, kind of not the last minute, but, you know, certainly make sure that we get the right ones lined up.

But about probably more than 95% of the people that evacuate will not go to a shelter.

They will go inland to a friend or family or, you know, sometimes a hotel.

But if you're going to do that, make sure you know where you're going to go.

Shelters, you know, they're kind of a shelter of last resort.

They may not have cots.

They may not have have bedding and that sort of thing.

So, you know, in terms of anything that you need to take with you, important papers, certainly medical records, make sure your medications are up to date.

Have a plan for your pet, as well.

That's part of the evacuation plan.

So the good thing is all that information is in our... Gavin> I was going to say it.

Kim> Our hurricane guide.

Gavin> You can go right there.

Yeah.

Kim> Right.

Which...we have.... but we've got a new version of that, the 2024 Hurricane Guide.

And it's full of information on how citizens can get ready for a hurricane, what they need to do before, during and after.

And it's all laid out in there.

It's available in a couple of forms.

It's available online at our website at SCEMD.org.

It's also available on our South Carolina Emergency Manager app.

And that emergency manager app also has modules in there where you can actually build a plan, put important numbers in there, link up places.

So it's got a lot of good information to help you make a plan.

Gavin> So a lot of good information out there, Kim, for people to start preparing now as hurricane season drops on us June 1st, That's Kim Stenson director of South Carolina Emergency Management division.

Thank you, Kim, so much.

Kim> Thank you.

>> Joining me now to discuss the latest on climate change and how it affects our state are two University of South Carolina professors, Dr. Greg Carbone with the geography department at the University of South Carolina, and Dr. Kirsten Dell, the Carolina trustees professor in the Department of Geography.

Welcome to you both.

I'm glad you guys are here.

I want to ask you right now just to kind of go a topical 30,000 foot view here when we talk to you, Dr. Carbone, about how things are going when it comes to climate change.

We hear a lot of reports in the news.

We hear a lot of different, you know, some would say hyperbolic situations going on, just kind of clear the air for us and tell us what the latest research is showing when it comes to climate change around the globe.

>> Sure.

Both the international and domestic reports on climate change are quite clear that we have seen a signal, particularly in the post World War two period, for increasing temperature across the world and across the country.

And those...those increases last year were...were extraordinary in the sense that we had an El Nino year.

At the same time, we have these increasing trends of temperature change.

So the records every month nearly last year were extraordinary.

And so we're definitely seeing some very clear signs of temperature rise and other kinds of expressions of climate change.

Gavin> And when you see that, what's your take?

I mean, is it, these are red flags cropping up all around?

Do you think people are taking it as seriously as they need to?

Dr. Carbone> Probably not.

I mean, I think I think you can hear things very frequently.

And if they're not happening in your backyard, then...then it's difficult to make the connection.

Global temperature changes of a half degree Celsius or degree Fahrenheit are extraordinary kinds of rises in terms of an average global temperature.

That's a lot of energy, right?

And so when we see those kinds of changes, it truly means something significant.

But it may not resonate with somebody on the ground.

Right.

That a half degree doesn't seem so much, but it's expanded across the whole world.

Of course, it's a... it's a big amount.

Gavin> And then we hear people talking about, "Oh, it's hotter, it must be climate change "or it's a colder winter or it's raining more" Dr. Dow, what do you, what do you take away from that when it comes to the urgency of this situation and what we're seeing maybe in South Carolina when it comes to higher temperatures and forecasted higher temperatures here?

Dr. Dow> Yeah.

When people say, you know,... "It... "It was warmer.

It was colder."

I say, tell me about the clothes in your closet.

Do you have winter clothes?

Do you have summer clothes?

You got some in front, You've got some packed away.

But things change, right?

And that variability is normal.

We can unpack it if we need the sweater, but we know we have it there so that we because we know we're going to need it.

There is variation around this.

So, I'm like,...

it's...I think...

I think it's probably time to look at these bigger trends.

Gavin> Mm hmm.

Dr. Dow> And as you were talking, I was thinking one of the real challenges seems to me, in taking it seriously is what we're finding is a lot of people are thinking about it and they're talking about making plans.

And what they're seeing is that there's not a lot of implementation yet.

And it's a...it's a different kind of problem to make big infrastructure decisions without the benefit of the...the greater confidence we've had.

We used to be able to say, "Oh, history is going to tell us more or less what we're going to expect.

And that's just no longer best practices and that makes the decisions a little more complicated.

So I, I think people are taking it much more seriously.

It's it's the what are best practices in this in this changing world kind of question that I think is slowing some things down.

Gavin> Yeah, I was going to say, when you when you hear policymakers talk, when you see people...pundits on the news, talk, I mean, yes, they're talking about at least that's, you know, further along than where we came in maybe in the early 2000 when everyone was saying, "This doesn't exist."

Now, I think they just come to this understanding that, "Yes, we know that climate change exists.

"Yes, we know, you know, humans caused a lot of this."

Dr. Dow> Yeah.

And so the question is, all right, our city last... last time we talked, we talked about urban heat islands.

Our city is hot, our city is dangerously hot in places.

And one of the clearest things about climate change other than sea level rise is that we're expecting warmer temperatures in and around here.

And so we've got to start thinking about a different kind of future and planning for it and making smart investments and looking at it like let's plant, you know, if we're going to plant trees, let's, the cities are already doing this.

They're planting trees that are going to last under hotter temperatures.

And we're going to start making decisions that have that planning horizon, we don't usually...usually haven't had to work on.

But I'm excited to see the experiment starting and people asking you questions.

So- Gavin> Better integration, and understanding is what you need to do because it's not going it's not getting any cooler.

Right?

Dr. Dow> No.

Dr. Carbone> We're always looking and this question about variability and change is really interesting because we're always, as climate scientists, always interested in understanding the trends that are going on, the signal from the noise.

The noise is the inter-annual year to year variability, which we always see.

But the clearer that signal gets, the less noise you're going to see, right?

So and we have seen in the last 50 years, we have seen some trends, but the push that is the radiative change, the energy budget change has been relatively small compared to the projections for the future.

And so the signal to noise ratio, as we call it, is going to get much clearer in the upcoming decades.

So if we haven't seen anything really strong yet, it's because the push hasn't been that strong, actually.

Gavin> So, Dr. Carbone, I want to just ask you a bit more about hurricane season.

That's kind of the reason we're here today talking about that.

We're taping on Wednesday.

So we don't have NOAA's, you know, National Hurricane Center forecast yet.

But of course, it's just a forecast.

Last year they said it could be about a near-normal season.

Turned out we had about 20 storms, seven became hurricanes, three major hurricanes.

So what do we see right now when we look at, you know, sea level temperatures, sea level rise, the threat of greater storm surge, the greatest, stronger storms?

What do you take away from when we see that forecast, what that means?

And then just how people should be preparing for this?

And are we going to see bigger storms better storms?

Dr. Carbone> Sure.

Well, what we do know is the Atlantic is warm.

It's anomalously warm.

So it's this unusual warmth that we've seen for the last several years, at least in really a decade, has contributed to a number of things, more active hurricane seasons and heavier precipitation in some cases.

Many of the big heavy precipitation events that we've seen in South Carolina were accompanied by above average sea surface temperatures, greater rates of evaporation, greater moisture availability.

And when you have hurricanes in the mix of all that, you've got something that's going to be able to lift that moisture and produce cumulonimbus clouds and heavy precipitation.

If the hurricanes stall, as we saw with Florence, for example, then you get precipitous heavy precipitation for prolonged periods of time.

And that's really what's led to some of the flooding events that we've had in the state.

So it's a serious thing.

I think the hurricane forecast, what makes it interesting this year is not in addition to those warm sea surface temperatures which we've had for the last decade, we now are entering into a La Nina season.

And during La Nina is the jet stream.

The subtropical jet is a little weaker, which means it will do a little less shearing of the tops of those storms, which I think is going to lead to an above average forecast from NOAA tomorrow.

Gavin> And that's what kind of saved this last go round.

Last hurricane season too, was all that wind shear helped redirect a lot of those storms away from the coast.

Dr. Carbone> During El Nino years, that's exactly the case as it was last year.

So this year, this is going to be very interesting.

Gavin> So Dr. Dow, what's your take away when we talk about the hurricane season here, what people need to know about it?

And, you know, when we look at the effects of what you're talking about, Hurricane Florence in 2018, I believe that was what we saw, just dumping all that rain in the Carolinas, water coming down from North Carolina, really threatening our infrastructure, road infrastructure almost cut off the coast when it came to Horry County.

What do you think people need to understand when it comes to the effects of these big storms, whether they're inland or on the coast?

>> So I think we need to understand that this adaptation to climate change is going to be an ongoing problem and that maybe it's time to start making investments in things that are going to be more resilient to this.

This isn't...we can't build back as it was.

You need to build back better and we've got a state resilience office and we're moving in the direction of doing a bunch of things on that.

But there's... you kind of want to thread the needle.

I don't want to you don't want to I don't want this to be scary... Gavin> Sure.

Dr. Dow> But it's super serious.

It's like if your doctor said, "Hey, I need you to go to the specialist "and look after this", we're at that point.

It's time to be getting to the specialist and getting serious.

It's no longer like "I'll do that next week."

So that's I'm thinking we'll learn We'll...probably, unfortunately, get more... tangible, tangible impacts on that, in the coming year.

Gavin> Well, it's, to that...vantage, and say you know when you were just briefly talking about heat a moment ago, extreme heat is becoming one of the biggest threats that we're facing.

You know, we're talking about global warming.

Heat is a big issue there.

2023 was the hottest year on record globally, according to NOAA and NASA.

And then adding to this long term trend, that's the last ten years have been the ten hottest on record.

You know, and this so far, April was also the 11th month in a row of record warmth for the world.

So we're we need to see the specialist here, like you're saying, but no one seems to be trying to do much.

Obviously, there are global efforts to do that.

But this is a problem that we can't air condition our way out of either.

Dr. Dow> Right.

Yeah, We, you can, One can say with our energies, we can sort of air condition our way into it.

And that's... that's not the way through.

It's not the only factor by a long shot.

No, I think that raises a really good point.

There are solutions out there that make a lot of sense.

You know, we can't, we don't have to air condition... We can energy efficiency our way out of it.

We can think about if if you're renting a little bit of caulk, if... if you're thinking if you've got a home, Have you looked at your ductwork?

A lot of people want to put solar panels on and say, "I'm green," but really, you can leak out a lot of really high value energy into that crawl space where it does absolutely no good for anything but snakes and spiders.

And if you're an animal lover, maybe that's what you want to do.

But I know most of us care more about our budget than ...than their comfort.

>> Yeah.

Especially when we look at climate models project the South Carolina temperature increase of 5 to 10 degrees by the year of 2100.

Dr. Dow> And the other thing that we need to remember, and it didn't come out in the last assessment it was the one before that, is that the southeast is expected to bear a good third of the total nation cost in labor related labor related costs, because people are going to need more breaks, they're going to need more water, they're going to do more time in the shade.

And that's going to change construction schedules and it's going to change what time of day people are out doing those infrastructure repairs.

And we've got, we've got real money issues coming in.

I mean, billions and billions are being invested in this infrastructure act right now, but there's more to come.

And...we've got public safety.

I mean, again, serious, serious, urgent public safety issues, not just what might happen in a hurricane evacuation, but a couple of hurricane evacuation with some power outages and then have it on a hot, humid day.

And think about people who are relying on medical equipment in their homes or people who have preexisting conditions.

We have a lot of that in the state.

And then... the hurricane becomes, you know, more than a more than a passing storm in a flood, especially if those people's homes are damaged and they don't have, you know, safe and secure and well developed housing afterwards.

Gavin> Yeah, it's a cascading effect that, of course, comes with this territory.

Right.

You can't just solve one problem without maybe having another problem.

But to that effect, Dr. Carbone I want to ask you about the South Carolina Office of Resilience, which was created in 2020 by the governor to deal with a lot of the impacts of these these disasters that we face.

I think there was it was great because there were three presidential declared disasters in less than four years.

We had a lot of those hurricanes that there are a lot, but a lot of damage to our state was kind of a wake up call in many ways.

And it's been recognized by other states for being proactive.

We have this statewide strategic statewide resilience and risk reduction plan.

It has a lot of recommendations for state-wide protection of wetlands and other natural systems to help buffer against flooding.

I don't know if you've interacted with this plan that much or if you worked with the office that much.

But is this just a good start?

Is this...just should we just be happy that we have a starting point?

Are we too far behind the eight ball for this to matter, or is this the way for policymakers, for land use development to be more resilient going forward?

>> I think the state of South Carolina should be very proud of itself for being so proactive.

You know, the 2015 flood might have been the sort of trigger for this.

And then in subsequent years, the next three years, we had major events, major precipitation events and flooding events as a result of hurricanes.

So the fact that it was on their radar as early as 2015 as a major hazard, one that we needed to deal with and then had subsequent consequences, really initiated the Office of Resilience and this strategic plan is... is very comprehensive.

We were involved in... in the climate portion of the climate chapter for that.

And the other subsequent chapters were also really important in identifying the kinds of things that people can do and the communities can do to be more resilient.

Gavin> But Dr. Carbone, with... we have one minute left, I want to ask you just about the coast and the growth that we were seeing it being almost cost prohibitive to live on the coast right now with rising property insurance premiums.

That's from increased repair costs for insurance rates, property values.

Is it becoming cost prohibitive to live on the coast?

And should we be thinking more smarter when it comes to developing coastal regions?

When you look at maps from just ten years ago, aerial maps, I mean, you see wetlands that are no longer there before and they are essentially flood zones where these new homes that have gone in there.

How...are we really going to start implementing this plan more if we still see development like this?

Dr. Carbone> I hope we do.

It's very clear that the Supreme Court decision last year regarding wetlands is...problematic in the sense that there can be development now in some places that were really buffers for for where the water can go during times of flood.

We need to be proactive.

I think about thinking about that development and proactive about the infrastructure.

We have currently that can mitigate some of the consequences of heavy precipitation, because flooding will become increasingly an issue, the more developed those coastal regions are.

They're getting it from both ends.

Right.

They're getting it from the coastal surge, if you're right on the coast, and they're getting it from the rainfall that's coming down our rivers to the coast.

Gavin> A conversation that we're going to continue to have, not with y'all but like policymakers and other folks who are making these decisions.

So we appreciate your time.

That's Dr. Greg Carbone and Dr. Kirsten Dow with the University of South Carolina.

Thank you very much.

>> Appreciate it.

>> And that's it for this week For South Carolina ETV, I'm Gavin Jackson.

Be will South Carolina.

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